How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.

Watchdog · War Room

Every campaign's vital signs.

A command center for campaign staff and the people who follow them. Both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race get a health score from money, cash, outside spending, the early vote and campaign activity. Pick a side and the War Room briefs you like an operative: where the votes are, which groups move the race, and what the other side will hit you with.

Races tracked489Senate, governor and contested House

Competitive11034 within 35 to 65 percent

Both sides scored437The rest lack money reports

Outside money tracked$1.36BSenate and governor races

Situation board

Updated 2026-10-30 · early vote through 2026-10-30

Money and the polls disagreeThe forecast favorite runs the weaker campaign by 15 points or more

On the moveBiggest swing in the forecast over seven days

The ballots are talkingWhere the early vote has moved the forecast most

Critical in a close raceA campaign below 40 in a race the forecast still calls competitive

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How campaign health works

The Ledger formula, from public records only

Each campaign is scored on up to seven parts, each from 0 to 1 against its opponent, then weighted and put on a 100 point scale. A part with no data is left out rather than guessed, and a campaign with no money or cash report on file shows Not enough data.

Part	Weight	What it measures
Money	25	Share of the two candidates' combined receipts; spending stands in when one side has no receipts report
Cash	20	Share of combined cash on hand at the last report
Momentum	15	Change since the prior report; left out until two reports are on file
Air cover	15	Share of outside spending that helps this candidate
Early vote	15	The party's share of ballots cast where states report party, and the gap to what the forecast expected; 7 for House races
National tide	15	The Gallup party identification shift from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats, scaled by how far the race moves with the nation
Activity	10	Campaign stops, show and podcast mentions, Google ads and news desk stories in recent weeks

Taken off the top: 4 points for being outmatched five to one in cash, and 2 points for each contested item in the candidate's watchdog file, up to 8.

Labels: Strong at 70 and up, Stable 55 to 69, Strained 40 to 54, Critical under 40.

What it is not: a forecast. A well funded campaign can trail and a broke one can win. The score says which campaign has more to work with right now; the forecast says who is likely to win. When the two disagree, the Situation board flags it.

Sources: FEC and state filings as compiled for the forecast finance books, the Watchdog money, trail and media files, the On Point early vote tracker and the forecast model. Paths to victory are built from the forecast, its county map and its voter group estimates.

The War Room rebuilds after every forecast run. See the forecast · People files · Money flow