2026 forecast

Iowa Senate forecast

Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson, an open seat. The model has Turek ahead by 1.3 points, winning 59 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Toss upModel D +1.3Polls D +0.1Updated October 9, 2026

99 counties

D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

10,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.0 and R +5.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
OnPoint average	LOWESS Election Day projection		D +0.1
Emerson College/Nexstar Media	650 LV	3d	R +0.7
CNN/SSRS	801 LV	4d	R +3.0
Suffolk University	500 LV	5d	D +3.2
New York Times/Siena	606 LV	8d	R +1.3
Rasmussen Reports (R)	1,028 LV	9d	D +5.1
Quantus Insights	714 LV	10d	R +0.1
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company	1,008 LV	11d	D +1.4
Big Data Poll	650 RV	16d	D +4.2
InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	16d	D +1.7
Marist College	1,050 RV	19d	D +5.5
Trafalgar Group (R)	1,089 LV	21d	R +0.7
co/efficient (R)	831 LV	23d	R +0.7
Cygnal (R)	500 LV	28d	D +1.3
Rasmussen Reports (R)	1,031 LV	29d	D +6.1
YouGov	2,041 LV	31d	D +3.1
Emerson College	750 LV	38d	R +3.7
Global Strategy Group (D)	800 LV	39d	D +2.2
Wedgewood Polls	600 LV	41d	R +0.8
Abacus Data	323 LV	42d	D +7.5
Suffolk University	500 LV	47d	R +5.1
Emerson College	712 LV	66d	R +1.7
Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan	1,003 RV	104d	D +3.7
New York Times/Siena University	600 LV	104d	R +2.3
Cygnal (R)	600 LV	112d	R +0.6
Global Strategy Group (D)	1,000 LV	120d	D +0.1

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Turek	Hinson
GenderMen	46%	44.6	53.4
Women	54%	54.0	44.0
Age18 to 29	15%	55.1	42.8
30 to 44	22%	49.8	48.2
45 to 64	32%	46.3	51.7
65+	31%	50.3	47.6
RaceWhite	90%	46.7	51.3
Black	3%	89.1	9.0
Latino	3%	66.9	31.1
Asian and other	4%	77.5	20.1
Race and genderWhite men	41%	40.8	57.2
White women	49%	51.6	46.3
Black men	1%	87.0	11.1
Black women	2%	91.0	7.1
Latino men	2%	64.9	33.0
Latino women	2%	68.9	29.1
All other races	4%	77.5	20.1