SearchThe Weighting Room
25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 forecast

Texas Senate forecast

James Talarico vs Ken Paxton. The model has Talarico ahead by 2.7 points, winning 69 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +2.7Polls D +2.4Updated October 9, 2026

County simulation

254 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +26.4: 2 simulationsD +25.1: 1 simulationsD +23.8: 2 simulationsD +22.5: 2 simulationsD +21.3: 5 simulationsD +20.0: 9 simulationsD +18.7: 12 simulationsD +17.4: 26 simulationsD +16.2: 59 simulationsD +14.9: 68 simulationsD +13.6: 99 simulationsD +12.3: 171 simulationsD +11.1: 244 simulationsD +9.8: 372 simulationsD +8.5: 491 simulationsD +7.2: 619 simulationsD +6.0: 773 simulationsD +4.7: 900 simulationsD +3.4: 947 simulationsD +2.1: 1004 simulationsD +0.9: 941 simulationsR +0.4: 877 simulationsR +1.7: 701 simulationsR +3.0: 541 simulationsR +4.2: 406 simulationsR +5.5: 288 simulationsR +6.8: 184 simulationsR +8.1: 117 simulationsR +9.3: 51 simulationsR +10.6: 45 simulationsR +11.9: 23 simulationsR +13.2: 9 simulationsR +14.4: 5 simulationsR +15.7: 2 simulationsR +17.0: 1 simulationsR +18.3: 1 simulationsR +19.5: 1 simulationsR +20.8: 0 simulationsR +22.1: 0 simulationsR +23.4: 1 simulationsD +27.0R +24.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.4 and R +3.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +2.4
Guidant Polling for Public First Action800 LV4dD +2.7
YouGov3,625 LV4dD +5.1
New York Times/Siena615 LV9dD +5.7
Rasmussen Reports1,128 LV10dD +0.4
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company881 LV11dD +1.4
UMass Lowell/YouGov850 LV11dR +0.9
Pulse Decision Science (R)800 LV12dR +0.6
Big Data Poll698 LV13dD +1.5
Stratus Intelligence (R)856 LV15dD +1.8
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)1,007 LV17dD +3.6
Marist University1,139 RV19dD +3.5
Texas Southern University1,800 LV20dD +1.6
Trafalgar Group (R)1,079 LV22dD +2.4
Emerson College1,000 LV25dD +2.1
SoCal Strategies649 LV26dD +5.5
ReconMR/Siena University614 LV28dD +5.7
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy625 LV29dD +4.4
InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV30dD +1.0
Univision/YouGov1,000 RV35dD +4.4
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan895 LV38dD +3.6
Overton Insights (R)1,167 LV44dD +1.3
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)1,000 LV46dD +4.6
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project1,200 RV57dD +3.6
Emerson College1,000 LV60dD +0.1
Wedgewood Polls800 LV70dD +3.2

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareTalaricoPaxton
GenderMen49%46.451.1
Women51%53.743.8
Age18 to 2916%52.545.0
30 to 4426%48.648.9
45 to 6434%49.747.8
65+25%50.647.0
RaceWhite53%35.262.3
Black14%78.918.7
Latino26%59.937.5
Asian and other7%69.527.6
Race and genderWhite men26%29.768.0
White women27%40.457.1
Black men7%75.222.4
Black women7%82.415.2
Latino men14%57.040.3
Latino women13%62.834.6
All other races7%69.527.6