2026 forecast
Florida Governor forecast
David Jolly vs Byron Donalds, an open seat. The model has Donalds ahead by 1.7 points, winning 63 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
67 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +6.2 and R +9.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +3.4 | |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | 2d | R +1.5 |
| YouGov | 3,813 LV | 4d | R +2.9 |
| Targoz Market Research (R) | 1,000 LV | 5d | R +6.4 |
| Mason-Dixon for Telemundo | 625 LV | 8d | R +5.7 |
| Change Research | 1,063 LV | 11d | D +1.3 |
| Stetson University | 830 LV | 18d | R +10.4 |
| St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | 22d | R +2.4 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,107 LV | 30d | D +1.9 |
| Hart Research Associates (D) | 600 LV | 57d | R +0.8 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,026 LV | 75d | R +5.5 |
| University of North Florida | 848 LV | 84d | R +4.6 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,348 RV | 90d | R +0.2 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,593 LV | 146d | D +3.0 |
| Cherry Communications (R) | 604 LV | 153d | R +6.2 |
| Stetson University | 848 LV | 179d | R +5.4 |
| Echelon Insights | 406 LV | 183d | R +6.3 |
| MDW Communications (D) | 1,834 LV | 189d | R +1.4 |
| Emerson College | 1,165 LV | 192d | R +3.8 |
| University of North Florida | 786 LV | 221d | R +5.7 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,129 LV | 235d | R +3.6 |
| University of North Florida | 728 LV | 349d | R +10.7 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,118 RV | 386d | R +2.6 |
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 631 LV | 395d | D +0.9 |
| AIF Center | 800 LV | 408d | R +8.0 |
| Victory Insights | 600 LV | 486d | R +6.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Jolly | Donalds |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 44.4 | 53.1 |
| Women | 53% | 51.0 | 46.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 49.4 | 48.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 45.7 | 51.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 47.9 | 49.6 |
| 65+ | 36% | 48.6 | 48.9 |
| RaceWhite | 62% | 36.4 | 61.0 |
| Black | 14% | 81.4 | 16.3 |
| Latino | 19% | 56.0 | 41.8 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 66.4 | 30.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 28% | 30.9 | 66.6 |
| White women | 34% | 41.1 | 56.3 |
| Black men | 7% | 77.6 | 20.1 |
| Black women | 7% | 84.9 | 12.7 |
| Latino men | 9% | 55.3 | 42.4 |
| Latino women | 10% | 56.6 | 41.2 |
| All other races | 5% | 66.4 | 30.7 |