2026 forecast
Florida Senate forecast
Angie Nixon vs Ashley Moody. The model has Moody ahead by 3.1 points, winning 71 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
67 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +4.4 and R +10.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +3.6 | |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | 2d | R +3.4 |
| YouGov | 3,813 LV | 4d | R +5.9 |
| Mason-Dixon for Telemundo | 625 LV | 8d | R +8.6 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,063 LV | 12d | R +2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 600 LV | 18d | R +5.3 |
| St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | 22d | R +1.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 733 LV | 29d | R +5.3 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,107 LV | 30d | R +1.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Nixon | Moody |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 43.8 | 53.8 |
| Women | 53% | 50.4 | 47.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 48.6 | 48.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 45.0 | 52.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 47.2 | 50.3 |
| 65+ | 36% | 48.0 | 49.6 |
| RaceWhite | 62% | 35.7 | 61.8 |
| Black | 14% | 81.0 | 16.8 |
| Latino | 19% | 55.5 | 42.3 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 65.6 | 31.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 28% | 30.1 | 67.4 |
| White women | 34% | 40.3 | 57.1 |
| Black men | 7% | 77.1 | 20.6 |
| Black women | 7% | 84.6 | 13.1 |
| Latino men | 9% | 54.9 | 42.9 |
| Latino women | 10% | 56.1 | 41.7 |
| All other races | 5% | 65.6 | 31.5 |