2026 forecast
South Carolina Senate forecast
Annie Andrews vs Darline Graham. The model has Graham ahead by 0.8 points, winning 57 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
46 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +6.8 and R +8.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +0.1 | |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 10d | D +0.8 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,087 LV | 14d | D +0.2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,006 LV | 25d | R +5.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 30d | R +0.3 |
| Impact Research (D) | 700 LV | 46d | R +1.7 |
| Impact Research (D) | 900 LV | 48d | D +1.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Andrews | Graham |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 43.0 | 51.4 |
| Women | 53% | 50.3 | 44.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 48.5 | 45.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 45.8 | 48.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 45.7 | 48.7 |
| 65+ | 33% | 48.0 | 46.6 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 34.3 | 60.1 |
| Black | 24% | 79.8 | 15.0 |
| Latino | 3% | 53.8 | 40.6 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 62.6 | 30.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 32% | 29.1 | 65.3 |
| White women | 37% | 38.7 | 55.7 |
| Black men | 12% | 76.1 | 18.7 |
| Black women | 12% | 83.4 | 11.4 |
| Latino men | 2% | 53.6 | 40.8 |
| Latino women | 2% | 54.1 | 40.5 |
| All other races | 4% | 62.6 | 30.7 |