The generic ballot, the story so far.

The change is the move in the average over the two weeks after each event. Polls move for many reasons at once, so a move after an event is not proof the event caused it.

1. PolicyFeb 13, 2025Mass firings of probationary federal workersR +1.3 then R +1.2 +0.1
2. EconomyApr 2, 2025Liberation Day tariffs announcedD +0.3 then D +1.9 +1.6
3. EconomyApr 9, 202590 day pause on most tariffsD +0.6 then D +3.0 +2.4
4. UnrestJun 7, 2025National Guard federalized for Los AngelesD +1.5 then R +0.9 −2.4
5. MilitaryJun 21, 2025US strikes Iranian nuclear sitesR +0.9 then D +0.1 +1.0
6. PolicyJul 4, 2025One Big Beautiful Bill Act signedD +0.2 then D +0.8 +0.6
7. ScandalJul 7, 2025Justice Department memo on Epstein filesD +0.1 then D +1.6 +1.5
8. PolicyAug 11, 2025Federal takeover of the DC policeD +2.0 then D +1.7 −0.3
9. MilitarySep 2, 2025First US strike on a Venezuelan boatD +1.5 then D +2.0 +0.5
10. OtherSep 10, 2025Charlie Kirk shot and killedD +2.0 then D +1.5 −0.5
11. PolicyOct 1, 2025Federal government shutdown beginsD +1.8 then D +1.4 −0.4
12. ElectionNov 4, 2025Democrats win the 2025 marquee racesD +2.7 then D +4.3 +1.6
13. PolicyNov 12, 2025Record 43 day shutdown endsD +4.1 then D +4.8 +0.7
14. ScandalNov 19, 2025Epstein Files Transparency Act signedD +4.4 then D +4.0 −0.4
15. MilitaryJan 3, 2026US strikes Venezuela and captures MaduroD +3.3 then D +4.1 +0.8
16. UnrestJan 7, 2026ICE agent kills Renee Good in MinneapolisD +3.5 then D +4.6 +1.1
17. UnrestJan 24, 2026Federal agents kill Alex PrettiD +4.8 then D +4.2 −0.6
18. PolicyFeb 14, 2026Homeland Security shutdown beginsD +4.8 then D +7.9 +3.1
19. EconomyFeb 20, 2026Supreme Court strikes down emergency tariffsD +6.3 then D +6.7 +0.4
20. PolicyFeb 24, 2026Trump delivers the State of the UnionD +7.1 then D +6.7 −0.4
21. MilitaryFeb 28, 2026US and Israel launch war on IranD +7.9 then D +6.8 −1.1
22. UnrestMar 28, 2026Third nationwide No Kings protestsD +7.0 then D +6.4 −0.6
23. EconomyMar 31, 2026Gas tops $4 a gallon nationallyD +7.0 then D +6.4 −0.6
24. MilitaryApr 7, 2026Two week ceasefire with IranD +6.6 then D +6.2 −0.4
25. MilitaryApr 13, 2026US naval blockade of Iran beginsD +6.3 then D +7.1 +0.8
26. PolicyApr 30, 2026Record 76 day DHS shutdown endsD +8.2 then D +6.9 −1.3
27. MilitaryJun 17, 2026Preliminary US and Iran deal signedD +7.1 then D +6.8 −0.3
28. PolicyJun 30, 2026Court strikes down birthright orderD +7.1 then D +5.5 −1.6
29. MilitaryJul 13, 2026Iran blockade reinstatedD +5.6 then D +7.6 +2.0
30. EconomyJul 20, 202650 percent tariffs on Canadian goodsD +7.6 then D +9.0 +1.4
31. MilitarySep 1, 2026US launches new strikes on IranD +7.8 then D +8.7 +0.9

The line is the On Point Politics polling average, updated October 20, 2026, from every public poll weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade. Open the full average with every poll.