2026 forecast
Nebraska Senate forecast
Dan Osborn vs Pete Ricketts. The model has Osborn ahead by 1.2 points, winning 56 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
93 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.7 and R +6.0. Negative margins are Democratic or independent wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +1.3 | |
| YouGov | 1,809 LV | 6d | R +0.1 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,113 LV | 9d | R +1.5 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | 23d | R +2.8 |
| SurveyUSA | 503 LV | 26d | D +3.9 |
| GBAO (D) | 800 LV | 31d | R +0.3 |
| Impact Research (D) | 600 LV | 57d | R +2.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 1,165 LV | 151d | D +4.1 |
| Impact Research (D) | 600 LV | 246d | R +3.0 |
| Lake Research Partners | 900 LV | 296d | R +1.7 |
| Lake Research Partners | 900 LV | 437d | D +0.3 |
| Change Research | 524 LV | 556d | R +0.7 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Osborn | Ricketts |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 44.6 | 52.3 |
| Women | 53% | 53.0 | 43.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 55.1 | 41.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 49.6 | 47.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 46.4 | 50.5 |
| 65+ | 29% | 48.2 | 48.9 |
| RaceWhite | 86% | 45.0 | 51.9 |
| Black | 4% | 88.8 | 7.7 |
| Latino | 6% | 63.7 | 33.2 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 75.5 | 20.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 39.6 | 57.4 |
| White women | 46% | 49.7 | 47.2 |
| Black men | 2% | 87.1 | 9.4 |
| Black women | 2% | 90.4 | 6.1 |
| Latino men | 3% | 62.0 | 34.8 |
| Latino women | 3% | 65.4 | 31.6 |
| All other races | 4% | 75.5 | 20.6 |