How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-13
Leela Gray vs Anna Paulina Luna
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2539
Raised $2.6M against $4.1M for Anna Paulina Luna.
- Cash weight 2036
$601K in the bank against $1.1M for Anna Paulina Luna. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1573
Outside groups spent $3.1M helping Leela Gray and $1.1M helping Anna Paulina Luna.
- Early vote weight 740
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.04 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Leela Gray.
- Activity weight 1025
$23K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2561
Raised $4.1M against $2.6M for Leela Gray.
- Cash weight 2064
$1.1M in the bank against $601K for Leela Gray. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1527
Outside groups spent $1.1M helping Anna Paulina Luna and $3.1M helping Leela Gray.
- Early vote weight 760
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.04 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Anna Paulina Luna.
- Activity weight 1050
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $15K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Leela Gray trails by 4.8 and wins 23% of simulations. Closing it takes about 7,689 voters switching sides, or 15,378 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +12.9 and D +3.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$601K cash against $1.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points away from Leela Gray. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Anna Paulina Luna's strongest asset
Cash: $1.1M in the bank against $601K for Leela Gray.
- Protect the lead
Anna Paulina Luna leads by 4.8 in the forecast and wins 77% of simulations. The cushion is about 15,378 votes; a one point swing is about 1,609 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +3.6 and R +12.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.1M cash against $601K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points toward Anna Paulina Luna. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Leela Gray's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +4.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +3.6 and R +12.9
- Polling average
- R +2.0
- Partisan lean
- R +9.7
- Early vote effect
- R +2.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Gray | Luna | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.6M | $4.1M |
| Spent | $2.0M | $3.1M |
| Cash on hand | $601K | $1.1M |
| Outside money for | $3.1M | $1.1M |
| Google ads | $23K | $15K |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 4,717,903
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +2.5
- Forecast expected
- D +4.8
- Against expectation
- 7.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watch