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Kansas KS-02
Don Coover vs Derek Schmidt
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2542
Raised $1.2M against $1.7M for Derek Schmidt.
- Cash weight 2032
$433K in the bank against $939K for Derek Schmidt. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 756
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 7.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.95 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Don Coover.
- Activity weight 1025
$7K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2558
Raised $1.7M against $1.2M for Don Coover.
- Cash weight 2068
$939K in the bank against $433K for Don Coover. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 744
Registered Republicans cast 43% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 7.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.95 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Derek Schmidt.
- Activity weight 1025
$68K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Don Coover trails by 2.1 and wins 39% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,045 voters switching sides, or 6,090 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.2 and D +6.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$433K cash against $939K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 7.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points toward Don Coover. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Derek Schmidt's strongest asset
Cash: $939K in the bank against $433K for Don Coover.
- Protect the lead
Derek Schmidt leads by 2.1 in the forecast and wins 61% of simulations. The cushion is about 6,090 votes; a one point swing is about 1,443 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.8 and R +11.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$939K cash against $433K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 43% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 7.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points away from Derek Schmidt. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Don Coover's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.8 and R +11.3
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +19.8
- Early vote effect
- D +0.6
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Coover | Schmidt | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.2M | $1.7M |
| Spent | $809K | $557K |
| Cash on hand | $433K | $939K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $7K | $68K |
The early vote
Kansas, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 375,937
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.8
- Forecast expected
- R +8.3
- Against expectation
- 7.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.