How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-02
Amanda Marie Green vs Austin Rogers
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2532
Raised $609K against $1.3M for Austin Rogers.
- Cash weight 207
$28K in the bank against $387K for Austin Rogers. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Amanda Marie Green and $858K helping Austin Rogers.
- Early vote weight 740
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.97 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Amanda Marie Green.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $28K against $387K.
- Money weight 2568
Raised $1.3M against $609K for Amanda Marie Green.
- Cash weight 2093
$387K in the bank against $28K for Amanda Marie Green. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $858K helping Austin Rogers and $0 helping Amanda Marie Green.
- Early vote weight 760
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.97 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Austin Rogers.
- Activity weight 1025
$17K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Amanda Marie Green trails by 3.5 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,756 voters switching sides, or 11,511 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +12.9 and D +5.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$28K cash against $387K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points away from Amanda Marie Green. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Austin Rogers's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $858K helping Austin Rogers and $0 helping Amanda Marie Green.
- Protect the lead
Austin Rogers leads by 3.5 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 11,511 votes; a one point swing is about 1,631 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.8 and R +12.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$387K cash against $28K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points toward Austin Rogers. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Amanda Marie Green's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.8 and R +12.9
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +14.6
- Early vote effect
- R +2.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Green | Rogers | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $609K | $1.3M |
| Spent | $320K | $623K |
| Cash on hand | $28K | $387K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $858K |
| Google ads | $0 | $17K |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 4,717,903
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +2.5
- Forecast expected
- D +4.8
- Against expectation
- 7.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.