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Mississippi Senate
Scott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2547
Raised $3.9M against $4.5M for Cindy Hyde-Smith.
- Cash weight 2026
$847K in the bank against $2.4M for Cindy Hyde-Smith. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1593
Outside groups spent $7.6M helping Scott Colom and $593K helping Cindy Hyde-Smith.
- National tide weight 1576
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.84 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for Scott Colom.
- Activity weight 1075
8 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $12K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Money weight 2554
Raised $4.5M against $3.9M for Scott Colom.
- Cash weight 2074
$2.4M in the bank against $847K for Scott Colom. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 157
Outside groups spent $593K helping Cindy Hyde-Smith and $7.6M helping Scott Colom.
- National tide weight 1524
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.84 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.8 points of that tide, a headwind for Cindy Hyde-Smith.
- Activity weight 1075
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $50K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Scott Colom trails by 0.8 and wins 43% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,887 voters switching sides, or 7,773 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.6 and D +7.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +5.2. Your best recent poll is Change Research (D) at R +4.5; your worst is Change Research (D) at R +4.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Hinds, a projected net 46,129 votes; Washington, a projected net 6,171 votes; Leflore, a projected net 4,689 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Harrison, R +8.1, 6.2% of the vote; DeSoto, R +8.4, 5.8% of the vote; Madison, D +6.9, 4.3% of the vote; Lee, R +10.8, 2.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Scott Colom runs furthest behind in Washington, Lincoln, Hinds. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 72% of voters, 45 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 50 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.99 points; Small counties, 59% of voters, 45 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Scott Colom: Immigration voters 20 to 74, White voters 33 to 60, Voters who can afford daily costs 41 to 53. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$847K cash against $2.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Scott Colom. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Cindy Hyde-Smith's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Protect the lead
Cindy Hyde-Smith leads by 0.8 in the forecast and wins 57% of simulations. The cushion is about 7,773 votes; a one point swing is about 4,858 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.5 and R +8.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +5.2. Your best recent poll is Change Research (D) at R +4.5; your worst is Change Research (D) at R +4.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Rankin, a projected net 13,351 votes; Pearl River, a projected net 8,315 votes; Jackson, a projected net 7,191 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Harrison, R +8.1, 6.2% of the vote; DeSoto, R +8.4, 5.8% of the vote; Madison, D +6.9, 4.3% of the vote; Lee, R +10.8, 2.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Cindy Hyde-Smith runs furthest behind in Monroe, Lowndes, Oktibbeha. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 72% of voters, 48 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 43 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.99 points; Small counties, 59% of voters, 49 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Cindy Hyde-Smith: Black voters 19 to 76, Independents 18 to 70, Moderates 29 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $847K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Cindy Hyde-Smith. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Scott Colom's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $7.6M helping Scott Colom and $593K helping Cindy Hyde-Smith.
The map for Colom
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hinds | D +60.2 | 7.9% | +46,129 |
| Washington | D +47.1 | 1.3% | +6,171 |
| Leflore | D +54.9 | 0.9% | +4,689 |
| Oktibbeha | D +28.3 | 1.7% | +4,674 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison | R +8.1 | 6.2% | -4,879 |
| DeSoto | R +8.4 | 5.8% | -4,734 |
| Madison | D +6.9 | 4.3% | +2,896 |
| Lee | R +10.8 | 2.7% | -2,810 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | D +47.1 | 1.3% | +6,171 |
| Lincoln | R +32.3 | 1.3% | -3,982 |
| Hinds | D +60.2 | 7.9% | +46,129 |
The coalition
Colom against Hyde-Smith among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters without a degree73% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Small counties59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202456% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- White voters66% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +0.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.5 and R +8.6
- Polling average
- R +5.2
- Partisan lean
- R +21.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) | 0 | 842 LV | R +4.5 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Colom | Hyde-Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.9M | $4.5M |
| Spent | $1.5M | $2.6M |
| Cash on hand | $847K | $2.4M |
| Outside money for | $7.6M | $593K |
| Google ads | $13K | $50K |
- Senate Leadership Fund, new buy for Hyde-Smith, more than, low seven figures per a person familiar Source$1.0M
- Senate Majority PAC, first TV ad for Colom, running through Nov 3, about Source$1.2M
- Senate Majority PAC affiliates, last major buy, announced Oct 28 $1.0M
The early vote
Mississippi, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 56,049
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +1.7
- Forecast expected
- D +4.8
- Against expectation
- 6.5 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-27Pete Buttigieg tour in Gulf Coast
Buttigieg is scheduled to campaign for Colom in cities along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Source
- 2026-10-26Donald Trump announced in Corinth
Announced Monday rally at Crossroads Arena, RSVP only, Trump expected on stage at 6 p.m. Source
- 2026-10-26Cindy Hyde-Smith announced in Corinth
Scheduled rally with President Donald Trump at Crossroads Arena, with doors at 2:30 p.m. and Trump expected to speak at 6 p.m. Source
- 2026-10-22Kamala Harris rally in Columbus
Fix: city now known. Rally at the Columbus High School gym, where Harris said Mississippi matters. Source
- 2026-10-22Kamala Harris event in Clarksdale
Roundtable with Colom, Rep. Bennie Thompson and local doctors earlier the same day as the Columbus rally. Source
- 2026-10-22Scott Colom event in Clarksdale
Roundtable on rural health care at a community health center with Rep. Bennie Thompson, local doctors and other local leaders. Source
- 2026-10-22Scott Colom rally in Columbus
Rally in the Columbus High School gym, where Colom played basketball as a youth, with former Vice President Kamala Harris. Source
- 2026-10-21Cindy Hyde-Smith event in Vicksburg
Appeared at an event in Vicksburg where she spoke to reporters, with Sen. Roger Wicker and Rep. Bennie Thompson also appearing. Source
- 2026-10-14Raphael Warnock rally in Jackson
Warnock met faith leaders and rallied supporters at Colom's Jackson campaign headquarters. Source
- 2026-10-14Scott Colom rally in Jackson
Rally at his campaign headquarters on River Place with Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, with Pastor Marcus Cathy leading the prayer. Source
- 2026-10-02Cory Booker event in Gulfport
Booker joined Colom for a Canvass with Colom volunteer event to open his fall travel. Source