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Tennessee TN-07
Darden Copeland vs Matt Van Epps
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2530
Raised $1.1M against $2.6M for Matt Van Epps.
- Cash weight 2020
$79K in the bank against $309K for Matt Van Epps. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1541
Outside groups spent $1.6M helping Darden Copeland and $2.4M helping Matt Van Epps.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Darden Copeland.
- Money weight 2570
Raised $2.6M against $1.1M for Darden Copeland.
- Cash weight 2080
$309K in the bank against $79K for Darden Copeland. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1559
Outside groups spent $2.4M helping Matt Van Epps and $1.6M helping Darden Copeland.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Matt Van Epps.
- Activity weight 1025
$15K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Darden Copeland trails by 2.7 and wins 35% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,529 voters switching sides, or 7,058 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.4 and D +5.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$79K cash against $309K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Darden Copeland. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Matt Van Epps's strongest asset
Cash: $309K in the bank against $79K for Darden Copeland.
- Protect the lead
Matt Van Epps leads by 2.7 in the forecast and wins 65% of simulations. The cushion is about 7,058 votes; a one point swing is about 1,288 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.9 and R +11.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$309K cash against $79K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Matt Van Epps. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Darden Copeland's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.9 and R +11.4
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +20.7
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Copeland | Epps | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.1M | $2.6M |
| Spent | $790K | $2.3M |
| Cash on hand | $79K | $309K |
| Outside money for | $1.6M | $2.4M |
| Google ads | $0 | $15K |
The early vote
Tennessee, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,280,642
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +25.8
- Forecast expected
- R +25.2
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.