How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
North Carolina NC-13
Paul Barringer vs Brad Knott
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2542
Raised $1.2M against $1.6M for Brad Knott.
- Cash weight 2037
$508K in the bank against $855K for Brad Knott. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 762
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 26% for the other party. That is 4.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.86 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Paul Barringer.
- Activity weight 1025
$11K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2558
Raised $1.6M against $1.2M for Paul Barringer.
- Cash weight 2063
$855K in the bank against $508K for Paul Barringer. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 738
Registered Republicans cast 26% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.86 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Brad Knott.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Paul Barringer trails by 0.1 and wins 49% of simulations. Closing it takes about 236 voters switching sides, or 472 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.4 and D +8.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$508K cash against $855K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 26% for the other party. That is 4.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.2 points away from Paul Barringer. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Brad Knott's strongest asset
Cash: $855K in the bank against $508K for Paul Barringer.
- Protect the lead
Brad Knott leads by 0.1 in the forecast and wins 51% of simulations. The cushion is about 472 votes; a one point swing is about 1,575 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.5 and R +8.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$855K cash against $508K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 26% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.2 points toward Brad Knott. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Paul Barringer's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +0.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.5 and R +8.4
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +16.7
- Early vote effect
- R +1.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Barringer | Knott | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.2M | $1.6M |
| Spent | $676K | $811K |
| Cash on hand | $508K | $855K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $11K | $0 |
The early vote
North Carolina, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 2,353,233
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +13.7
- Forecast expected
- D +18.5
- Against expectation
- 4.8 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.