2026 forecast
Alaska Senate forecast
Mary Peltola vs Dan S. Sullivan. The model has Peltola ahead by 1.5 points, winning 60 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
30 boroughsD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.1 and R +5.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +0.1 | |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | 6d | R +0.2 |
| New York Times/Siena | 504 LV | 8d | D +6.6 |
| Quantus Insights | 758 LV | 8d | D +1.1 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,079 LV | 15d | R +0.6 |
| co/efficient (R) | 799 LV | 22d | D +0.9 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1,188 LV | 25d | R +1.8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,352 LV | 27d | D +3.5 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 800 LV | 28d | D +5.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,495 LV | 47d | D +1.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,371 LV | 65d | D +1.5 |
| Data for Progress (D) | 578 LV | 66d | D +2.5 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 593 LV | 102d | R +2.9 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,393 LV | 124d | D +3.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,401 LV | 145d | D +1.8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,946 LV | 173d | D +3.8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,590 LV | 201d | D +3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 611 RV | 265d | D +1.1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,988 LV | 271d | D +1.5 |
| Data for Progress (D) | 823 LV | 351d | R +1.4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,708 LV | 359d | D +1.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,623 LV | 434d | R +5.4 |
| Data for Progress (D) | 678 LV | 439d | R +3.4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,261 LV | 1263d | D +2.6 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Peltola | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 45.1 | 49.0 |
| Women | 51% | 52.0 | 42.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 17% | 49.8 | 44.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 26% | 48.7 | 45.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 46.2 | 48.0 |
| 65+ | 25% | 50.8 | 43.9 |
| RaceWhite | 70% | 39.4 | 54.6 |
| Black | 3% | 81.8 | 15.1 |
| Latino | 5% | 59.3 | 35.9 |
| Asian and other | 22% | 70.4 | 25.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 32.8 | 60.6 |
| White women | 37% | 45.4 | 49.1 |
| Black men | 2% | 78.1 | 18.5 |
| Black women | 2% | 85.4 | 11.8 |
| Latino men | 3% | 55.5 | 39.3 |
| Latino women | 3% | 63.5 | 31.9 |
| All other races | 22% | 70.4 | 25.0 |