2026 forecast
Ohio Governor forecast
Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy, an open seat. The model has Acton ahead by 3.9 points, winning 78 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
88 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.5 and R +2.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +3.9 | |
| co/efficient (R) | 925 LV | 3d | D +1.8 |
| CNN/SSRS | 760 LV | 4d | D +7.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | 616 LV | 8d | D +3.7 |
| YouGov | 3,780 LV | 9d | D +3.1 |
| Big Data Poll | 682 LV | 12d | R +1.5 |
| NPR/Marist | 1,298 RV | 12d | D +3.5 |
| Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network | 500 LV | 12d | D +7.8 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 1,000 LV | 29d | D +2.1 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV | 57d | D +2.2 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,008 RV | 60d | R +2.3 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | 66d | D +0.9 |
| New York Times/Siena | 601 LV | 103d | R +0.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 800 LV | 115d | D +2.6 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | 127d | D +1.9 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,015 RV | 130d | D +0.7 |
| Data Targeting | 603 LV | 305d | R +2.0 |
| Emerson College | 850 RV | 305d | D +2.4 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 800 RV | 360d | R +3.6 |
| Hart Research | 800 LV | 382d | D +1.4 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 RV | 416d | R +8.7 |
| Impact Research | 800 LV | 438d | R +1.6 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 800 RV | 533d | R +5.6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 642 RV | 596d | D +1.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Acton | Ramaswamy |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 46.8 | 51.1 |
| Women | 54% | 54.4 | 43.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 55.7 | 42.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 51.5 | 46.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 47.9 | 50.1 |
| 65+ | 30% | 51.6 | 46.3 |
| RaceWhite | 82% | 43.9 | 54.0 |
| Black | 11% | 89.3 | 8.7 |
| Latino | 3% | 67.5 | 30.5 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 75.3 | 22.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 38.6 | 59.3 |
| White women | 45% | 48.4 | 49.5 |
| Black men | 5% | 88.2 | 9.8 |
| Black women | 6% | 90.3 | 7.7 |
| Latino men | 1% | 64.5 | 33.4 |
| Latino women | 1% | 70.4 | 27.5 |
| All other races | 4% | 75.3 | 22.3 |