Florida primary · August 18•Statewide forecast · county projection

Florida Governor Republican Primary

Byron Donalds carries a narrow plurality over James Fishback in the TPSI model, with Jay Collins and Paul Renner holding enough of the vote to decide it. No runoff: whoever finishes first takes the nomination, however small the margin. The Panhandle votes on Central time, so the state does not finish closing until 8:00 PM ET.

Last updated—

Reported votes0

Estimated reporting0%

Precincts0%

Race statusPolls open

Reported results

Actual reported votes. Forecast estimates appear separately.

Polls openUpdated —

Waiting on the first candidate list from the feed. Florida’s Panhandle counties vote on Central time, so the state finishes closing at 8:00 PM ET, in CLOSED.

No votes counted0% est. reporting

Forecast snapshotModel metrics update as new results arrive

Plurality — no runoff

Win probability

58.0%Donalds

Top outcomes

Donalds wins58.0%

Fishback wins39.3%

Collins wins2.7%

Other outcomes<1%

Model-estimatedPercent reporting

0.0%reporting

Model projection · not actual results

Donalds projected ahead

The model has Donalds ahead by 2.6 points, inside its own margin of error. His Southwest Gulf base is the largest single block he carries, but Tampa Bay and the I-4 corridor together cast more than a third of the ballots and the model does not separate the field there.

Projected margin+2.6Donalds over Fishback

Projected final vote shareMuted bars indicate a forecast, not certified results. They use the same 0 to 100% scale as the reported-results bars, and are the sum of all 67 county projections.

Forecast only

Donalds

34.2%

projected

Fishback

31.6%

projected

Collins

20.8%

projected

Renner

8.2%

projected

Projected turnout1,635,000

Votes remaining1,635,000

SD of votes±154,600

Margin range (95%)−24.1 to +29.3

No history snapshots · live data only

DonaldsFishbackCollinsRennerfill = leader · depth = margin · hatched = too close to callscroll or pinch to zoom · drag to pan

County projections are demographic estimates, not local polling: 476 interviews across 67 counties, a median of three per county, and 61 of 67 with a 90% interval that crosses zero. We do not call counties. They are here to show where the outstanding vote sits — projected turnout is drawn from registration and past primaries, and is far more reliable than any county share.

county	reporting	turnout	donalds	fishback	collins	renner	margin
Miami-Dade	0%	125,209	26.1%32,617	40.4%50,534	18.9%23,690	9.6%12,008	+14.3
Hillsborough	0%	78,258	34.8%27,226	31.0%24,237	20.7%16,223	7.2%5,674	+3.8
Brevard	0%	74,346	32.4%24,096	29.7%22,073	20.7%15,367	13.4%9,933	+2.7
Pinellas	0%	72,239	37.2%26,849	30.3%21,886	21.4%15,436	7.5%5,439	+6.9
Duval	0%	70,132	27.8%19,518	34.5%24,182	24.0%16,818	10.8%7,553	+6.6
Palm Beach	0%	68,025	33.4%22,707	31.6%21,516	21.6%14,687	7.3%4,939	+1.8
Sarasota	0%	65,015	40.0%25,993	30.0%19,524	16.6%10,766	9.0%5,864	+9.9
Lee	0%	61,704	48.6%30,016	26.5%16,338	15.1%9,329	5.4%3,350	+22.2
Orange	0%	55,383	32.1%17,785	35.9%19,868	22.2%12,274	6.9%3,833	+3.8
Broward	0%	54,179	32.9%17,836	35.6%19,293	17.8%9,655	9.2%4,968	+2.7
Volusia	0%	50,266	35.5%17,821	29.5%14,830	23.9%11,995	7.0%3,524	+6.0
St. Johns	0%	48,159	35.0%16,862	32.0%15,388	21.5%10,365	7.6%3,641	+3.1
Polk	0%	43,042	31.2%13,438	27.2%11,707	28.1%12,108	7.9%3,396	+3.1
Lake	0%	42,440	30.8%13,088	27.4%11,637	26.0%11,034	6.8%2,907	+3.4
Manatee	0%	41,537	37.1%15,391	32.5%13,509	17.8%7,378	7.5%3,099	+4.5
Collier	0%	40,032	38.2%15,282	24.0%9,621	20.7%8,303	6.1%2,438	+14.1
Marion	0%	37,624	30.3%11,382	28.3%10,660	24.6%9,241	11.5%4,308	+1.9
St. Lucie	0%	35,818	28.7%10,298	35.2%12,594	20.6%7,361	10.5%3,772	+6.4
Pasco	0%	34,915	36.0%12,561	31.4%10,955	17.7%6,193	8.1%2,828	+4.6
Seminole	0%	34,614	35.0%12,111	27.6%9,553	24.7%8,560	6.9%2,399	+7.4
Escambia	0%	32,507	38.8%12,598	30.8%10,023	18.8%6,118	6.8%2,214	+7.9
Santa Rosa	0%	31,905	36.1%11,533	35.0%11,175	17.0%5,430	6.7%2,150	+1.1
Citrus	0%	29,196	45.9%13,413	27.5%8,029	16.1%4,701	5.8%1,702	+18.4
Okaloosa	0%	28,293	32.0%9,051	36.4%10,310	20.0%5,661	7.2%2,023	+4.5
Sumter	0%	26,487	37.2%9,864	26.3%6,977	26.2%6,929	6.8%1,806	+10.9
Indian River	0%	24,983	32.5%8,121	29.3%7,322	23.6%5,903	10.2%2,561	+3.2
Clay	0%	24,080	32.5%7,824	34.0%8,180	21.6%5,213	7.4%1,792	+1.5
Martin	0%	23,177	33.5%7,768	33.0%7,652	19.2%4,450	10.0%2,311	+0.5
Charlotte	0%	22,274	41.3%9,197	23.3%5,181	21.0%4,671	5.7%1,276	+18.0
Bay	0%	20,769	30.4%6,322	38.5%7,996	19.1%3,969	7.0%1,456	+8.1
Hernando	0%	19,565	37.4%7,308	32.8%6,413	17.2%3,357	7.0%1,362	+4.6
Walton	0%	19,264	36.2%6,968	36.1%6,950	16.9%3,265	6.3%1,217	+0.1
Leon	0%	17,759	29.9%5,318	31.2%5,543	21.3%3,781	9.7%1,726	+1.3
Nassau	0%	16,555	32.8%5,430	32.2%5,329	22.7%3,750	7.6%1,252	+0.6
Flagler	0%	13,244	33.0%4,368	28.1%3,716	28.5%3,775	7.8%1,038	+4.5
Osceola	0%	12,341	33.3%4,103	31.9%3,932	22.6%2,788	7.2%887	+1.4
Putnam	0%	11,438	37.5%4,289	28.7%3,288	22.7%2,601	7.1%814	+8.8
Alachua	0%	10,836	30.8%3,335	30.4%3,292	21.9%2,368	9.7%1,049	+0.4
Highlands	0%	10,234	41.0%4,199	25.9%2,648	18.1%1,851	6.0%612	+15.2
Columbia	0%	9,030	31.0%2,795	28.4%2,562	22.7%2,051	9.8%884	+2.6
Jackson	0%	8,428	33.1%2,787	35.2%2,967	18.4%1,553	6.8%575	+2.1
Monroe	0%	7,826	35.3%2,763	32.3%2,531	19.2%1,499	7.9%621	+3.0
Suwannee	0%	6,923	32.1%2,225	30.6%2,117	21.8%1,507	9.5%659	+1.6
Wakulla	0%	6,321	31.6%1,997	30.3%1,918	21.3%1,343	9.5%601	+1.3
Levy	0%	6,020	32.1%1,934	27.9%1,682	23.5%1,416	9.4%565	+4.2
Baker	0%	5,719	31.5%1,800	33.5%1,916	23.1%1,319	7.5%427	+2.0
Taylor	0%	4,816	33.8%1,629	27.3%1,314	22.7%1,091	9.2%444	+6.5
Hendry	0%	4,214	32.7%1,377	30.1%1,269	20.2%852	7.8%327	+2.5
Okeechobee	0%	4,214	36.8%1,549	27.5%1,157	17.2%727	6.7%281	+9.3
Washington	0%	4,214	35.4%1,491	33.0%1,392	18.7%790	6.7%283	+2.4
Calhoun	0%	3,913	35.9%1,405	35.6%1,394	17.6%688	6.5%256	+0.3
Dixie	0%	3,913	33.4%1,307	27.4%1,073	22.3%871	10.6%416	+6.0
Gilchrist	0%	3,913	30.8%1,203	30.1%1,176	22.4%875	9.3%362	+0.7
Bradford	0%	3,612	30.7%1,110	29.0%1,048	22.7%820	10.3%373	+1.7
Hardee	0%	3,010	42.4%1,275	23.3%701	18.6%559	5.6%168	+19.1
Holmes	0%	2,709	35.3%955	33.9%919	19.1%517	7.0%188	+1.3
Madison	0%	2,709	28.6%775	33.6%910	20.9%566	8.9%242	+5.0
Hamilton	0%	2,408	32.9%793	28.5%687	23.0%553	9.7%233	+4.4
Gulf	0%	1,806	31.6%571	35.8%647	19.2%347	6.5%118	+4.2
Jefferson	0%	1,806	28.5%515	32.7%590	22.4%404	10.0%181	+4.2
Liberty	0%	1,806	29.3%529	36.9%667	18.8%340	8.6%155	+7.6
Gadsden	0%	1,505	27.3%411	28.8%434	26.7%402	10.2%154	+1.5
Glades	0%	1,505	41.2%620	24.3%366	18.8%283	6.1%91	+16.9
Union	0%	1,505	30.6%460	29.5%444	21.5%323	10.1%152	+1.1
Desoto	0%	1,204	39.8%479	26.8%323	17.6%211	5.6%68	+13.0
Franklin	0%	1,204	31.4%379	35.8%430	20.2%244	8.4%101	+4.3
Lafayette	0%	903	27.2%245	35.8%323	19.0%172	9.8%88	+8.7
Statewideprojected	0%	1,635,000	34.2%559,264	31.6%516,822	20.8%339,684	8.2%134,134	Donalds +2.6

Run it yourself

The scenario engine behind this county baseline is public. Set candidate performance by age and race, move turnout, and watch all 67 counties recompute against the same model this board projects from.

Open the scenario engine →

All races tonight

Reported results only, no TPSI model.

16 races · 3 states

Florida

Final close 8:00 PM ET

GovernorDemocratic primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. SenateRepublican primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. SenateDemocratic primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 2Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 7Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. House 14Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. House 19Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. House 20Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. House 24Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. House 25Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET

Wyoming

Final close 9:00 PM ET

U.S. SenateRepublican primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
U.S. SenateDemocratic primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
U.S. House At-LargeRepublican primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
U.S. House At-LargeDemocratic primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET

Alaska

Final close 12:00 AM ET

U.S. SenateOpen primary

Awaiting returns

Final close 12:00 AM ET

U.S. House At-LargeOpen primary

Awaiting returns

Final close 12:00 AM ET

Method

Reported vote is solid. Projected share is muted and dashed, on the same 0 to 100% scale, and is the sum of all 67 county projections. Estimated reporting is the share of expected vote, not precincts. Race calls come from AP through CivicAPI; TPSI projects independently once the leader’s margin clears three standard deviations of the outstanding vote and at least 35% is counted, and those projections are labeled as ours.

The statewide probability is not built from the county intervals. County errors share one dominant statewide swing — if the model has Donalds wrong, it has him wrong in all 67 counties at once — so adding county variances independently would understate the real spread by roughly an order of magnitude. Probability comes from the statewide model, whose margin carries a standard deviation of 10.3 points against a projected margin of 2.6. Field dates August 11, 2026, n=476, ±4.5.

All candidate estimates on this page are built from pre-election day data. The survey closed before polls opened and has not been updated since; nothing a voter did today is in the shares. Turnout is the one input we replace with a measured figure — a 1,635,000 prior, in use because the turnout feed is unavailable.

A turnout figure lower than a general election, or lower than a past primary, is not a forecast that fewer people will vote. It defines which electorate the shares describe: a closed Republican primary is a small, self-selected slice of Florida, and every percentage here is a share of that slice and of nothing wider. Read these numbers as a description of the people who actually turned out, not as a prediction about the state.