2026 forecast
Kansas Senate forecast
Adam Hamilton vs Roger Marshall. The model has Hamilton ahead by 1.4 points, winning 58 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
105 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.1 and R +6.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +3.4 | |
| GBAO for Hamilton (D) | 600 LV | 5d | D +3.6 |
| YouGov | 2,255 LV | 5d | D +2.1 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,095 LV | 8d | D +2.3 |
| New York Times/Siena | 605 LV | 9d | R +0.4 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | 15d | D +3.2 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 750 LV | 23d | D +3.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 23d | D +2.2 |
| co/efficient (R) | 915 LV | 29d | R +1.1 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 54d | R +0.7 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 569 LV | 62d | R +2.1 |
| GBAO (D) | 600 LV | 88d | R +5.4 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 1,013 LV | 254d | R +8.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hamilton | Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 45.0 | 52.5 |
| Women | 53% | 53.5 | 44.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 54.4 | 43.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 49.2 | 48.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 47.1 | 50.4 |
| 65+ | 30% | 49.6 | 47.9 |
| RaceWhite | 83% | 44.6 | 52.9 |
| Black | 5% | 86.8 | 10.7 |
| Latino | 7% | 63.0 | 34.5 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 74.4 | 22.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 39.0 | 58.5 |
| White women | 44% | 49.5 | 48.0 |
| Black men | 2% | 84.5 | 13.0 |
| Black women | 3% | 88.9 | 8.6 |
| Latino men | 3% | 60.7 | 36.7 |
| Latino women | 3% | 65.3 | 32.3 |
| All other races | 5% | 74.4 | 22.7 |