Michigan primary · August 4•Level 2 coverage · statewide forecast

U.S. Senate Michigan Democratic Primary

Abdul El-Sayed leads the TPSI model against Rep. Haley Stevens in an open seat contest, with the Upper Peninsula vote outstanding until the final polls close an hour after the rest of the state.

Last updated—

Reported votes0

Estimated reporting0%

Race statusPolls open

Reported results

Actual reported votes. Forecast estimates appear separately.

Polls openUpdated —

No votes reported. Michigan’s final polls close at 9:00 PM ET, in CLOSED. Results appear here automatically.

No votes counted0% est. reporting

Forecast snapshotModel metrics update as new results arrive

Plurality

Win probability

73.3%El-Sayed

Top outcomes

El-Sayed wins73.3%

Stevens wins26.7%

Other outcomes<1%

Model-estimatedPercent reporting

0.0%reporting

Model projection · not actual results

El-Sayed projected ahead

The model expects El-Sayed to carry Wayne and Washtenaw by enough to absorb Stevens' advantage in her Oakland County base. The projected margin is wide, but the sample is small, so the range around it stays broad.

Projected margin+9.4El-Sayed, projected final points

Projected final vote shareMuted bars indicate a forecast, not certified results. They use the same 0 to 100% scale as the reported-results bars.

Forecast only

El-Sayed

53.9%

projected

Stevens

44.5%

projected

Projected turnout1,162,475

Votes remaining1,162,475

SD of votes±124,700

Margin range (95%)−20.9 to +39.7

No history snapshots · live data only

county	reporting	turnout	el-sayed	stevens	margin
Wayne	0%	243,118	52.9%128,596	45.6%110,875	+7.3
Oakland	0%	190,142	53.4%101,511	45.1%85,779	+8.3
Macomb	0%	94,044	54.6%51,307	43.7%41,138	+10.8
Washtenaw	0%	71,006	58.9%41,825	39.6%28,116	+19.3
Kent	0%	63,143	58.3%36,807	40.0%25,262	+18.3
Genesee	0%	58,221	51.5%29,962	46.9%27,327	+4.5
Ingham	0%	44,432	56.0%24,877	42.4%18,844	+13.6
Kalamazoo	0%	29,701	56.8%16,863	41.6%12,362	+15.2
Saginaw	0%	24,466	51.8%12,676	46.7%11,423	+5.1
Livingston	0%	22,068	57.8%12,747	40.6%8,968	+17.1
Ottawa	0%	19,166	55.3%10,607	43.0%8,233	+12.4
St. Clair	0%	18,548	53.4%9,910	45.0%8,341	+8.5
Eaton	0%	14,882	53.9%8,025	44.5%6,619	+9.4
Muskegon	0%	14,641	53.1%7,780	45.3%6,627	+7.9
Monroe	0%	13,910	55.8%7,755	42.7%5,946	+13.0
Jackson	0%	13,889	54.1%7,517	44.3%6,150	+9.8
Bay	0%	12,047	51.7%6,229	46.6%5,613	+5.1
Berrien	0%	11,138	50.5%5,628	47.8%5,321	+2.8
Clinton	0%	10,602	54.1%5,738	44.3%4,695	+9.8
Grand Traverse	0%	10,254	55.2%5,660	43.2%4,429	+12.0
Calhoun	0%	10,180	51.7%5,264	46.8%4,763	+4.9
Midland	0%	9,674	55.1%5,335	43.2%4,175	+12.0
Lapeer	0%	8,519	52.7%4,493	45.7%3,890	+7.1
Allegan	0%	7,765	54.3%4,217	43.9%3,408	+10.4
Shiawassee	0%	7,614	54.9%4,184	43.4%3,301	+11.6
Lenawee	0%	6,903	57.6%3,974	40.8%2,819	+16.7
Marquette	0%	6,801	55.7%3,785	42.8%2,914	+12.8
Isabella	0%	6,226	58.9%3,666	39.4%2,454	+19.5
Montcalm	0%	5,963	49.1%2,928	49.1%2,928	+0.0
Ionia	0%	5,543	53.2%2,950	45.0%2,493	+8.2
Tuscola	0%	4,818	49.6%2,389	48.6%2,342	+1.0
Barry	0%	4,797	50.7%2,431	47.5%2,280	+3.1
Van Buren	0%	4,618	53.8%2,486	44.6%2,058	+9.2
St. Joseph	0%	4,120	49.9%2,057	48.4%1,993	+1.6
Antrim	0%	3,523	49.0%1,725	49.3%1,738	−0.4
Clare	0%	3,348	52.3%1,751	46.0%1,540	+6.3
Mecosta	0%	3,164	49.2%1,557	49.0%1,550	+0.2
Sanilac	0%	3,123	52.1%1,627	46.2%1,443	+5.9
Emmet	0%	3,109	56.1%1,745	42.0%1,305	+14.1
Leelanau	0%	3,006	50.0%1,504	48.5%1,457	+1.6
Gratiot	0%	2,955	54.6%1,612	43.7%1,293	+10.8
Gladwin	0%	2,947	44.0%1,296	54.2%1,597	−10.2
Cass	0%	2,890	53.4%1,544	44.8%1,294	+8.6
Newaygo	0%	2,811	48.2%1,354	49.9%1,404	−1.8
Wexford	0%	2,717	48.4%1,315	50.0%1,358	−1.6
Mason	0%	2,637	51.3%1,353	47.0%1,239	+4.3
Houghton	0%	2,572	52.1%1,339	46.3%1,192	+5.7
Roscommon	0%	2,555	44.8%1,144	53.6%1,370	−8.9
Cheboygan	0%	2,481	54.7%1,356	43.6%1,083	+11.0
Iosco	0%	2,456	44.6%1,095	53.8%1,322	−9.2
Charlevoix	0%	2,421	48.0%1,163	50.4%1,220	−2.4
Huron	0%	2,392	49.6%1,186	48.6%1,163	+1.0
Chippewa	0%	2,353	51.7%1,217	46.6%1,096	+5.1
Delta	0%	2,300	45.8%1,053	52.7%1,212	−6.9
Hillsdale	0%	2,137	49.9%1,067	48.4%1,034	+1.6
Alpena	0%	2,120	52.3%1,110	45.9%972	+6.5
Manistee	0%	2,021	49.2%993	49.2%993	+0.0
Ogemaw	0%	1,993	47.7%951	50.5%1,006	−2.7
Otsego	0%	1,894	47.9%908	50.3%952	−2.4
Benzie	0%	1,810	54.6%988	43.6%789	+11.0
Branch	0%	1,808	52.8%955	45.2%817	+7.6
Oceana	0%	1,718	49.0%841	49.3%848	−0.4
Kalkaska	0%	1,669	47.3%790	50.9%849	−3.5
Arenac	0%	1,492	47.5%709	51.1%762	−3.5
Gogebic	0%	1,473	52.6%775	45.8%674	+6.9
Dickinson	0%	1,403	49.1%688	49.2%691	−0.2
Osceola	0%	1,326	51.5%683	46.8%620	+4.7
Menominee	0%	1,243	51.7%643	46.8%582	+4.9
Mackinac	0%	1,034	48.7%504	49.7%514	−1.0
Crawford	0%	957	51.3%491	47.0%450	+4.3
Presque Isle	0%	931	52.1%485	46.1%429	+6.1
Montmorency	0%	908	52.0%472	46.4%422	+5.5
Alcona	0%	830	54.0%448	44.3%368	+9.6
Iron	0%	809	49.2%398	49.2%398	+0.0
Lake	0%	723	48.4%350	49.9%361	−1.6
Missaukee	0%	624	45.1%282	53.2%332	−8.1
Alger	0%	509	54.1%275	44.2%225	+9.8
Oscoda	0%	502	53.9%270	44.4%223	+9.4
Ontonagon	0%	468	49.2%230	48.8%228	+0.4
Schoolcraft	0%	458	46.9%215	51.6%236	−4.7
Baraga	0%	455	56.9%259	41.4%188	+15.5
Luce	0%	234	44.9%105	53.7%126	−8.9
Keweenaw	0%	209	41.2%86	57.1%119	−15.9
statewide (projected)	0%	1,162,475	53.9%627,084	44.5%516,971	+9.5

All races tonight

Level 4 coverage. Reported results only, no TPSI model.

23 races · 5 states

Virginia

Close 7:00 PM ET

U.S. House 2Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. House 1Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. House 5Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET
U.S. SenateRepublican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 7:00 PM ET

Michigan

Final close 9:00 PM ET

GovernorDemocratic primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
GovernorRepublican primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
U.S. House 13Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 7Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 11Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 10Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 10Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 8Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET

Missouri

Close 8:00 PM ET

Amendment 4Initiative petition threshold
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 1Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 5Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 6Republican primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET
U.S. House 2Democratic primary
Awaiting returns
Close 8:00 PM ET

Kansas

Final close 9:00 PM ET

Constitutional AmendmentSupreme Court selection
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
GovernorRepublican primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
GovernorDemocratic primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET
U.S. SenateDemocratic primary
Awaiting returns
Final close 9:00 PM ET

Washington

Close 11:00 PM ET

U.S. House 3Top-two primary

Awaiting returns

Close 11:00 PM ET

U.S. House 4Top-two primary

Awaiting returns

Close 11:00 PM ET

Method

Reported vote is solid. Projected share is muted and dashed, on the same 0 to 100% scale. Estimated reporting is the share of expected vote, not precincts. Race calls come from AP through CivicAPI. TPSI projections are modeled estimates, labeled separately from calls, and appear only on the Michigan Senate primary.