How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Maine ME-02
Matt Dunlap vs Paul LePage
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2546
Raised $2.7M against $3.1M for Paul LePage.
- Cash weight 2012
$229K in the bank against $1.7M for Paul LePage. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1584
Outside groups spent $4.4M helping Matt Dunlap and $826K helping Paul LePage.
- Early vote weight 777
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 23% for the other party. That is 2.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.95 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Matt Dunlap.
- Activity weight 1025
$28K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $229K against $1.7M.
- Money weight 2554
Raised $3.1M against $2.7M for Matt Dunlap.
- Cash weight 2088
$1.7M in the bank against $229K for Matt Dunlap. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1516
Outside groups spent $826K helping Paul LePage and $4.4M helping Matt Dunlap.
- Early vote weight 723
Registered Republicans cast 23% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 2.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.95 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Paul LePage.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $19K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Matt Dunlap leads by 3.3 in the forecast and wins 69% of simulations. The cushion is about 11,751 votes; a one point swing is about 1,780 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.0 and D +11.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$229K cash against $1.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 23% for the other party. That is 2.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points away from Matt Dunlap. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Paul LePage's strongest asset
Cash: $1.7M in the bank against $229K for Matt Dunlap.
- Close the gap
Paul LePage trails by 3.3 and wins 31% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,876 voters switching sides, or 11,751 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.6 and R +5.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $229K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 23% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 2.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points toward Paul LePage. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Matt Dunlap's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $4.4M helping Matt Dunlap and $826K helping Paul LePage.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.6 and R +5.0
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +9.2
- Early vote effect
- R +0.5
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Dunlap | LePage | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.7M | $3.1M |
| Spent | $977K | $878K |
| Cash on hand | $229K | $1.7M |
| Outside money for | $4.4M | $826K |
| Google ads | $28K | $19K |
The early vote
Maine, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 290,377
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +24.2
- Forecast expected
- D +26.2
- Against expectation
- 2.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-14Mike Johnson rally in Bangor
Johnson rallied for LePage at Sea Dog Brewing Co., joined by Rep. Mark Harris. Source