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25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 forecast

Maine Senate forecast

Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins. The model has Jackson ahead by 4.0 points, winning 79 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +4.0Polls D +2.3Updated October 9, 2026

County simulation

16 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +34.1: 1 simulationsD +32.4: 0 simulationsD +30.6: 0 simulationsD +28.9: 2 simulationsD +27.1: 0 simulationsD +25.4: 0 simulationsD +23.6: 3 simulationsD +21.9: 6 simulationsD +20.1: 9 simulationsD +18.4: 22 simulationsD +16.6: 56 simulationsD +14.9: 145 simulationsD +13.1: 264 simulationsD +11.4: 530 simulationsD +9.6: 800 simulationsD +7.9: 1069 simulationsD +6.1: 1277 simulationsD +4.4: 1355 simulationsD +2.6: 1313 simulationsD +0.9: 1078 simulationsR +0.9: 736 simulationsR +2.6: 532 simulationsR +4.4: 366 simulationsR +6.1: 183 simulationsR +7.9: 115 simulationsR +9.6: 70 simulationsR +11.4: 30 simulationsR +13.1: 16 simulationsR +14.9: 6 simulationsR +16.6: 5 simulationsR +18.4: 5 simulationsR +20.1: 2 simulationsR +21.9: 2 simulationsR +23.6: 1 simulationsR +25.4: 0 simulationsR +27.1: 0 simulationsR +28.9: 0 simulationsR +30.6: 0 simulationsR +32.4: 0 simulationsR +34.1: 1 simulationsD +35.0R +35.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.6 and R +2.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +2.3
The Washington Post800 LV4dD +3.3
Marist College1,505 RV5dD +1.3
CBS News/YouGov1,144 LV8dR +1.0
Trafalgar Group (R)1,091 LV8dD +1.7
Wedgewood Polls400 LV8dD +5.2
co/efficient (R)1,240 LV9dD +2.0
Maine People's Resource Center (D)684 LV10dD +0.8
InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV16dD +0.8
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP982 LV17dD +2.6
New York Times/Siena University619 LV17dR +3.3
University of New Hampshire1,312 LV18dD +4.3
Quantus Insights621 LV24dD +0.7
UMass Lowell/YouGov650 LV25dD +4.1
Rasmussen Reports (R)1,033 LV29dD +2.1
YouGov1,335 LV31dD +3.1
SSRS880 LV33dD +2.0
Abacus Data327 LV42dD +7.5
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)1,000 RV60dD +0.3
Hart Research (D)802 LV69dD +3.1
University of New Hampshire1,178 LV81dD +3.3
Z to A Research (D)988 LV93dR +1.9
Public Policy Polling (D)785 LV94dD +3.8
Wedgewood Polls (D)405 LV95dD +4.8

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareJacksonCollins
GenderMen45%45.152.8
Women55%55.742.2
Age18 to 2913%52.445.5
30 to 4420%49.948.1
45 to 6434%48.050.0
65+34%54.243.8
RaceWhite94%49.448.6
Latino2%68.729.3
Asian and other4%75.022.6
Race and genderWhite men41%42.955.1
White women52%54.543.5
All other races4%75.022.6