How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas TX-09
Leticia Gutierrez vs Alex Mealer
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 255
Raised $152K against $2.7M for Alex Mealer.
- Cash weight 205
$19K in the bank against $362K for Alex Mealer. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1510
Outside groups spent $662K helping Leticia Gutierrez and $6.0M helping Alex Mealer.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.98 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Leticia Gutierrez.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $19K against $362K.
- Money weight 2595
Raised $2.7M against $152K for Leticia Gutierrez.
- Cash weight 2095
$362K in the bank against $19K for Leticia Gutierrez. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1590
Outside groups spent $6.0M helping Alex Mealer and $662K helping Leticia Gutierrez.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.98 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Alex Mealer.
- Activity weight 1025
$80K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Leticia Gutierrez trails by 2.7 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,547 voters switching sides, or 7,094 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +10.5 and D +5.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$19K cash against $362K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Leticia Gutierrez. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Alex Mealer's strongest asset
Cash: $362K in the bank against $19K for Leticia Gutierrez.
- Protect the lead
Alex Mealer leads by 2.7 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 7,094 votes; a one point swing is about 1,333 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.1 and R +10.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$362K cash against $19K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Alex Mealer. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Leticia Gutierrez's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.1 and R +10.5
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +17.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Gutierrez | Mealer | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $152K | $2.7M |
| Spent | $37K | $1.7M |
| Cash on hand | $19K | $362K |
| Outside money for | $662K | $6.0M |
| Google ads | $0 | $80K |
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 6,818,833
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.3
- Forecast expected
- R +9.3
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.