How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-27
Eliott Rodriguez vs Maria Elvira Salazar
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2522
Raised $661K against $2.4M for Maria Elvira Salazar.
- Cash weight 2013
$325K in the bank against $2.3M for Maria Elvira Salazar. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1573
Outside groups spent $440K helping Eliott Rodriguez and $160K helping Maria Elvira Salazar.
- Early vote weight 740
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Eliott Rodriguez.
- Activity weight 1025
$54K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $325K against $2.3M.
- Money weight 2578
Raised $2.4M against $661K for Eliott Rodriguez.
- Cash weight 2087
$2.3M in the bank against $325K for Eliott Rodriguez. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1527
Outside groups spent $160K helping Maria Elvira Salazar and $440K helping Eliott Rodriguez.
- Early vote weight 760
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Maria Elvira Salazar.
- Activity weight 1025
$86K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Eliott Rodriguez trails by 3.2 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,134 voters switching sides, or 10,268 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +12.2 and D +5.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$325K cash against $2.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points away from Eliott Rodriguez. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Maria Elvira Salazar's strongest asset
Cash: $2.3M in the bank against $325K for Eliott Rodriguez.
- Protect the lead
Maria Elvira Salazar leads by 3.2 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,268 votes; a one point swing is about 1,615 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.5 and R +12.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.3M cash against $325K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points toward Maria Elvira Salazar. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Eliott Rodriguez's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.5 and R +12.2
- Polling average
- R +2.0
- Partisan lean
- R +11.7
- Early vote effect
- R +2.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Rodriguez | Salazar | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $661K | $2.4M |
| Spent | $336K | $1.2M |
| Cash on hand | $325K | $2.3M |
| Outside money for | $440K | $160K |
| Google ads | $54K | $86K |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 4,717,903
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +2.5
- Forecast expected
- D +4.8
- Against expectation
- 7.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.