How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio OH-09
Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2575
Raised $5.6M against $1.9M for Derek Merrin.
- Cash weight 2061
$1.2M in the bank against $807K for Derek Merrin. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1568
Outside groups spent $4.9M helping Marcy Kaptur and $2.3M helping Derek Merrin.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.91 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Marcy Kaptur.
- Activity weight 1075
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $348K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2525
Raised $1.9M against $5.6M for Marcy Kaptur.
- Cash weight 2039
$807K in the bank against $1.2M for Marcy Kaptur. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1532
Outside groups spent $2.3M helping Derek Merrin and $4.9M helping Marcy Kaptur.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.91 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Derek Merrin.
- Activity weight 1025
$203K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Marcy Kaptur leads by 4.3 in the forecast and wins 75% of simulations. The cushion is about 13,743 votes; a one point swing is about 1,591 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.6 and D +12.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $807K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Derek Merrin's strongest asset
Cash: $807K in the bank against $1.2M for Marcy Kaptur.
- Close the gap
Derek Merrin trails by 4.3 and wins 25% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,872 voters switching sides, or 13,743 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +12.4 and R +3.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$807K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Marcy Kaptur's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +4.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +12.4 and R +3.6
- Polling average
- D +3.0
- Partisan lean
- R +11.0
- Early vote effect
- R +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Kaptur | Merrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.6M | $1.9M |
| Spent | $4.8M | $1.4M |
| Cash on hand | $1.2M | $807K |
| Outside money for | $4.9M | $2.3M |
| Google ads | $348K | $203K |
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,486,955
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.1
- Forecast expected
- D +9.7
- Against expectation
- 1.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Rep. Marcy Kaptur's Ohio 9th District from Tilt Republican to Toss Up. Source