How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Minnesota MN-08
Trina Swanson vs Pete Stauber
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2521
Raised $650K against $2.5M for Pete Stauber.
- Cash weight 2012
$167K in the bank against $1.2M for Pete Stauber. As of 09/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.98 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Trina Swanson.
- Activity weight 1025
$100 in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $167K against $1.2M.
- Money weight 2579
Raised $2.5M against $650K for Trina Swanson.
- Cash weight 2088
$1.2M in the bank against $167K for Trina Swanson. As of 09/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.98 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Pete Stauber.
- Activity weight 1025
$2K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Trina Swanson leads by 4.8 in the forecast and wins 76% of simulations. The cushion is about 16,768 votes; a one point swing is about 1,743 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.5 and D +13.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$167K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Trina Swanson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Pete Stauber's strongest asset
Cash: $1.2M in the bank against $167K for Trina Swanson.
- Close the gap
Pete Stauber trails by 4.8 and wins 24% of simulations. Closing it takes about 8,384 voters switching sides, or 16,768 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +13.8 and R +4.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $167K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Pete Stauber. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Trina Swanson's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +4.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +13.8 and R +4.5
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +14.2
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Swanson | Stauber | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $650K | $2.5M |
| Spent | $482K | $1.3M |
| Cash on hand | $167K | $1.2M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $100 | $2K |
The early vote
Minnesota, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 728,961
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +29.6
- Forecast expected
- D +30.7
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.