2026 forecast
Texas Governor forecast
Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott. The model has Abbott ahead by 2.5 points, winning 71 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
254 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.7 and R +8.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +2.4 | |
| Guidant Polling for Public First Action | 800 LV | 4d | R +2.3 |
| YouGov | 3,625 LV | 4d | D +0.1 |
| New York Times/Siena | 615 LV | 9d | D +2.7 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 881 LV | 11d | R +5.6 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 850 LV | 11d | R +4.9 |
| Big Data Poll | 698 LV | 13d | R +4.9 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) | 856 LV | 15d | R +3.2 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 17d | R +4.1 |
| Marist University | 1,139 RV | 19d | D +0.4 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 20d | R +3.4 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 25d | R +1.9 |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | 649 LV | 26d | R +5.6 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 614 LV | 28d | D +3.7 |
| Mason-Dixon | 625 LV | 29d | R +5.6 |
| Univision/YouGov | 1,000 RV | 35d | R +0.6 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 895 LV | 38d | R +3.4 |
| Overton Insights (R) | 1,167 LV | 44d | R +0.2 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 46d | R +7.1 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 57d | R +4.3 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 60d | R +2.9 |
| GBAO (D) | 1,000 LV | 61d | R +2.6 |
| Cygnal (R) | 800 LV | 70d | R +1.5 |
| Wedgewood Polls (D) | 800 LV | 70d | R +6.2 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena | 619 LV | 71d | R +1.3 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 71d | R +5.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hinojosa | Abbott |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 44.1 | 54.1 |
| Women | 51% | 51.5 | 46.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 49.5 | 48.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 26% | 46.2 | 52.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 47.7 | 50.6 |
| 65+ | 25% | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| RaceWhite | 53% | 32.7 | 65.5 |
| Black | 14% | 78.5 | 19.8 |
| Latino | 27% | 57.4 | 40.8 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 66.7 | 31.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 26% | 27.3 | 71.0 |
| White women | 27% | 37.8 | 60.4 |
| Black men | 7% | 74.6 | 23.7 |
| Black women | 7% | 82.2 | 16.1 |
| Latino men | 14% | 54.4 | 43.7 |
| Latino women | 13% | 60.4 | 37.8 |
| All other races | 7% | 66.7 | 31.2 |