How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Alabama AL-02
Shomari Figures vs Rhett Marques
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2560
Raised $2.4M against $1.6M for Rhett Marques.
- Cash weight 2088
$1.4M in the bank against $188K for Rhett Marques. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1529
Outside groups spent $2.0M helping Shomari Figures and $4.9M helping Rhett Marques.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.99 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Shomari Figures.
- Activity weight 1025
$3K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2540
Raised $1.6M against $2.4M for Shomari Figures.
- Cash weight 2012
$188K in the bank against $1.4M for Shomari Figures. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1571
Outside groups spent $4.9M helping Rhett Marques and $2.0M helping Shomari Figures.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.99 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.9 points of that tide, a headwind for Rhett Marques.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $188K against $1.4M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Shomari Figures leads by 1.3 in the forecast and wins 58% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,168 votes; a one point swing is about 1,237 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.4 and D +8.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.4M cash against $188K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Shomari Figures. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Rhett Marques's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $4.9M helping Rhett Marques and $2.0M helping Shomari Figures.
- Close the gap
Rhett Marques trails by 1.3 and wins 42% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,584 voters switching sides, or 3,168 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.7 and R +6.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$188K cash against $1.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Rhett Marques. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Shomari Figures's strongest asset
Cash: $1.4M in the bank against $188K for Rhett Marques.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.7 and R +6.4
- Polling average
- D +3.0
- Partisan lean
- R +13.1
- Early vote effect
- R +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Figures | Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.4M | $1.6M |
| Spent | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| Cash on hand | $1.4M | $188K |
| Outside money for | $2.0M | $4.9M |
| Google ads | $3K | $0 |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for Alabama yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.