2026 forecast
Nebraska Governor forecast
Lynne Walz vs Jim Pillen. The model has Pillen ahead by 5.8 points, winning 87 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
93 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +0.9 and R +12.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +1.9 | |
| YouGov | 1,809 LV | 6d | R +1.8 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,113 LV | 9d | R +1.6 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | 23d | R +15.9 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 600 RV | 25d | R +1.4 |
| SurveyUSA | 503 LV | 26d | R +8.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 559 RV | 37d | R +1.6 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 900 LV | 163d | R +3.9 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 670 RV | 185d | R +5.7 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Walz | Pillen |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 39.2 | 54.0 |
| Women | 53% | 47.8 | 45.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 48.8 | 44.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 44.2 | 49.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 41.4 | 51.9 |
| 65+ | 29% | 43.2 | 50.1 |
| RaceWhite | 86% | 39.7 | 53.6 |
| Black | 4% | 84.9 | 9.0 |
| Latino | 6% | 57.7 | 35.5 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 69.5 | 22.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 34.3 | 59.0 |
| White women | 46% | 44.4 | 48.8 |
| Black men | 2% | 82.9 | 11.0 |
| Black women | 2% | 86.8 | 7.1 |
| Latino men | 3% | 55.7 | 37.3 |
| Latino women | 3% | 59.8 | 33.7 |
| All other races | 4% | 69.5 | 22.9 |