How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas Governor
Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2539
Raised $13.0M against $20.0M for Greg Abbott.
- Cash weight 2018
$4.0M in the bank against $18.2M for Greg Abbott.
- National tide weight 1570
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.59 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 8.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Gina Hinojosa.
- Activity weight 1050
4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Money weight 2561
Raised $20.0M against $13.0M for Gina Hinojosa.
- Cash weight 2082
$18.2M in the bank against $4.0M for Gina Hinojosa.
- National tide weight 1530
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.59 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 8.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Greg Abbott.
- Activity weight 1050
10 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Gina Hinojosa trails by 1.4 and wins 37% of simulations. Closing it takes about 70,483 voters switching sides, or 140,967 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.1 and D +4.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +3.6. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena at D +2.3; your worst is Marist University at R +6.1. 29 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Travis, a projected net 303,270 votes; Harris, a projected net 287,509 votes; Dallas, a projected net 264,003 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tarrant, D +6.0, 7.2% of the vote; Collin, D +2.2, 4.4% of the vote; Denton, R +2.4, 3.8% of the vote; Fort Bend, D +9.7, 3.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Gina Hinojosa runs furthest behind in Bell, Brazoria, Fort Bend. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 68% of voters, 57 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 52 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.12 points; White voters, 61% of voters, 38 to 61, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Gina Hinojosa: Immigration voters 21 to 78, Small counties 24 to 74, Midsize counties 34 to 65. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.0M cash against $18.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Gina Hinojosa. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Greg Abbott's strongest asset
Cash: $18.2M in the bank against $4.0M for Gina Hinojosa.
- Protect the lead
Greg Abbott leads by 1.4 in the forecast and wins 63% of simulations. The cushion is about 140,967 votes; a one point swing is about 49,988 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.6 and R +7.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +3.6. Your best recent poll is Marist University at R +6.1; your worst is New York Times/Siena at D +2.3. 29 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Montgomery, a projected net 87,432 votes; Parker, a projected net 44,114 votes; Smith, a projected net 37,186 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tarrant, D +6.0, 7.2% of the vote; Collin, D +2.2, 4.4% of the vote; Denton, R +2.4, 3.8% of the vote; Fort Bend, D +9.7, 3.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Greg Abbott runs furthest behind in Hidalgo, Cameron, Travis. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 68% of voters, 42 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 47 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.12 points; White voters, 61% of voters, 61 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Greg Abbott: Black voters 20 to 79, Independents 28 to 69, Asian and other voters 37 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$18.2M cash against $4.0M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Greg Abbott. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Gina Hinojosa's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Hinojosa
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | D +55.1 | 5.5% | +303,270 |
| Harris | D +20.8 | 13.8% | +287,509 |
| Dallas | D +33.9 | 7.8% | +264,003 |
| Bexar | D +22.4 | 6.8% | +153,038 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | D +6.0 | 7.2% | +43,101 |
| Collin | D +2.2 | 4.4% | +9,520 |
| Denton | R +2.4 | 3.8% | -8,948 |
| Fort Bend | D +9.7 | 3.1% | +29,605 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bell | R +10.7 | 1.2% | -12,355 |
| Brazoria | R +12.7 | 1.4% | -17,243 |
| Fort Bend | D +9.7 | 3.1% | +29,605 |
The coalition
Hinojosa against Abbott among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- White voters61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202459% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Midsize counties19% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.6 and R +7.1
- Polling average
- R +3.6
- Partisan lean
- R +12.4
- Early vote effect
- D +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov | 0 | 1,460 LV | R +4.9 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 385 LV | R +2.0 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,398 LV | R +5.3 |
| Emerson College | 0 | 1,000 LV | R +3.2 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 0 | 969 LV | R +3.1 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 0 | 509 LV | R +1.3 |
| Univision/YouGov | 0 | 1,000 RV | R +3.1 |
| Texas Southern University/YouGov | 0 | 2,000 LV | R +3.9 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 1,142 LV | R +1.8 |
| CNN/SSRS | 0 | 923 LV | R +3.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 0 | 1,221 LV | R +3.5 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Hinojosa | Abbott | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $13.0M | $20.0M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $4.0M | $18.2M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 6,818,833
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.3
- Forecast expected
- R +9.3
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-25Margaret Brennan host
Interviewed Democratic governor nominee Gina Hinojosa on Face the Nation about four day school weeks, the uninsured rate, Greg Abbott's data center tax breaks and Elon Musk's donations to Abbott. Source
- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved the Texas governor race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Source
- 2026-10-13Mark Halperin reporter
His 2WAY 'Midterm Blitz' coverage described both the Texas governor and Senate races as in play, citing Vance's return to the state and money flowing to Paxton. Source
- 2026-09-22Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved Abbott vs Hinojosa from Likely R to Lean R. Source
- 2026-06-26Pod Save America hosts podcaster, leans D
Interviewed Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa about what it would take to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-27Greg Abbott announced in Inez
Announced Tuesday stop at Bomb Diggity. Source
- 2026-10-26Gina Hinojosa rally in Corpus Christi
Scheduled 6:30 p.m. get out the vote rally on her One Fight tour. Source
- 2026-10-22Greg Abbott tour stop in Temple
Let's Roll get out the vote event at Clem Mikeska's Bar-B-Q with Reps. Brad Buckley and Hillary Hickland. Source
- 2026-10-22Greg Abbott tour stop in San Angelo
Let's Roll get out the vote event at Arc Light Sports with San Angelo Mayor Tom Thompson. Source
- 2026-10-21Greg Abbott tour stop in Allen
Let's Roll get out the vote event at Matt's Rancho Martinez with Reps. Jeff Leach and Keresa Richardson. Source
- 2026-10-21Greg Abbott tour stop in Richmond
Get out the vote stop at Gino's Italian Joint with Rep. Matt Morgan, urging Republicans to keep Texas red. Source
- 2026-10-20Greg Abbott tour stop in Corpus Christi
Let's Roll get out the vote event at Brewster Street Ice House with Reps. Todd Hunter and Denise Villalobos. Source
- 2026-10-19Greg Abbott tour stop in Fort Worth
Let's Roll tour stop at Old Texas Brewing Co. on the first day of early voting, urging supporters to keep Tarrant County red. Source
- 2026-10-19Gina Hinojosa tour stop in San Antonio
One Fight get out the vote tour stop at Hangar 9 at Brooks on the South Side as early voting began. Source
- 2026-10-18Gina Hinojosa tour stop in Houston
Launch of her 17 stop One Fight get out the vote tour, which Hoodline reported kicked off on Sunday in Houston and ends in Collin County on Oct. 29. Source
- 2026-10-15Gina Hinojosa event in Austin
Proposed debate event outside the Governor's Mansion that Abbott skipped, then a rally for supporters at Wooldridge Square Park. Source
- 2026-10-15Greg Abbott tour stop in Huntsville
Afternoon stop at Honor Cafe on a statewide trip ahead of early voting, focused on affordability and law enforcement. Source