How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Oklahoma OK-05
Jena Nelson vs Stephanie Bice
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2524
Raised $739K against $2.4M for Stephanie Bice.
- Cash weight 205
$84K in the bank against $1.7M for Stephanie Bice. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 743
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 3.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1583
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.14 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jena Nelson.
- Activity weight 1025
$7K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $84K against $1.7M.
- Money weight 2576
Raised $2.4M against $739K for Jena Nelson.
- Cash weight 2095
$1.7M in the bank against $84K for Jena Nelson. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 757
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 3.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1517
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.14 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Stephanie Bice.
- Activity weight 1025
$53K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jena Nelson leads by 0.9 in the forecast and wins 55% of simulations. The cushion is about 2,363 votes; a one point swing is about 1,284 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.0 and D +10.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$84K cash against $1.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 3.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.8 points away from Jena Nelson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Stephanie Bice's strongest asset
Cash: $1.7M in the bank against $84K for Jena Nelson.
- Close the gap
Stephanie Bice trails by 0.9 and wins 45% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,181 voters switching sides, or 2,363 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.0 and R +8.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $84K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 3.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.8 points toward Stephanie Bice. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jena Nelson's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +10.0 and R +8.0
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +19.4
- Early vote effect
- R +0.8
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Nelson | Bice | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $739K | $2.4M |
| Spent | $655K | $1.8M |
| Cash on hand | $84K | $1.7M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $7K | $53K |
The early vote
Oklahoma, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 38,910
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +3.1
- Forecast expected
- D +0.1
- Against expectation
- 3.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.