How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Vermont Governor
Amanda Janoo vs Phil Scott
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2560
Raised $888K against $590K for Phil Scott.
- Cash weight 2060
$307K in the bank against $202K for Phil Scott.
- Air cover weight 159
Outside groups spent $40K helping Amanda Janoo and $400K helping Phil Scott.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.98 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Amanda Janoo.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Money weight 2540
Raised $590K against $888K for Amanda Janoo.
- Cash weight 2040
$202K in the bank against $307K for Amanda Janoo.
- Air cover weight 1591
Outside groups spent $400K helping Phil Scott and $40K helping Amanda Janoo.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.98 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Phil Scott.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Amanda Janoo trails by 5.2 and wins 20% of simulations. Closing it takes about 8,543 voters switching sides, or 17,087 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +13.2 and D +3.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +1.1. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at D +6.3; your worst is Braun Research at R +9.3. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Chittenden, a projected net 8,704 votes; Windham, a projected net 4,862 votes; Washington, a projected net 1,186 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Chittenden, D +9.8, 26.9% of the vote; Washington, D +3.8, 9.6% of the vote; Windsor, R +1.4, 9.3% of the vote; Addison, R +1.6, 6.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Amanda Janoo runs furthest behind in Grand Isle, Lamoille, Chittenden. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 95% of voters, 45 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.75 points; Small counties, 73% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.64 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Amanda Janoo: Immigration voters 14 to 83, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 26 to 71, New and irregular voters 30 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$307K cash against $202K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Amanda Janoo. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Phil Scott's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $400K helping Phil Scott and $40K helping Amanda Janoo.
- Protect the lead
Phil Scott leads by 5.2 in the forecast and wins 80% of simulations. The cushion is about 17,087 votes; a one point swing is about 1,646 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +3.1 and R +13.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +1.1. Your best recent poll is Braun Research at R +9.3; your worst is University of New Hampshire at D +6.3. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Rutland, a projected net 9,015 votes; Franklin, a projected net 8,151 votes; Orleans, a projected net 3,563 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Chittenden, D +9.8, 26.9% of the vote; Washington, D +3.8, 9.6% of the vote; Windsor, R +1.4, 9.3% of the vote; Addison, R +1.6, 6.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Phil Scott runs furthest behind in Windham, Orleans, Bennington. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 95% of voters, 52 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.75 points; Small counties, 73% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.64 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Phil Scott: Corruption voters 42 to 56, Health care and Social Security voters 44 to 54, Midsize counties 44 to 54. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$202K cash against $307K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Phil Scott. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Amanda Janoo's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Janoo
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden | D +9.8 | 26.9% | +8,704 |
| Windham | D +20.9 | 7.1% | +4,862 |
| Washington | D +3.8 | 9.6% | +1,186 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden | D +9.8 | 26.9% | +8,704 |
| Washington | D +3.8 | 9.6% | +1,186 |
| Windsor | R +1.4 | 9.3% | -437 |
| Addison | R +1.6 | 6.1% | -320 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Isle | R +25.4 | 1.3% | -1,093 |
| Lamoille | R +8.5 | 4% | -1,121 |
| Chittenden | D +9.8 | 26.9% | +8,704 |
The coalition
Janoo against Scott among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters95% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.8
- Small counties73% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202472% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters6% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
- 2024 nonvoters and third party voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- New and irregular voters6% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +5.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +3.1 and R +13.2
- Polling average
- R +1.1
- Partisan lean
- D +34.3
- Early vote effect
- D +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | 0 | 1,752 LV | R +4.2 |
| State Navigate | 11 | 948 LV | R +4.1 |
| Braun Research | 24 | 817 LV | R +9.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 829 LV | D +6.3 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Janoo | Scott | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $888K | $590K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $307K | $202K |
| Outside money for | $40K | $400K |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Vermont, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 139,565
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +40.9
- Forecast expected
- D +33.4
- Against expectation
- 7.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Phil Scott's Vermont governor race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Source
- 2026-10-06Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved Vermont governor from Solid R to Likely R. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-21Phil Scott debate in Colchester
Vermont Public governor debate with Amanda Janoo in the Vermont Public studio, moderated by Vermont Edition host Mikaela Lefrak. Source
- 2026-10-21Amanda Janoo debate in Colchester
Vermont Public governor debate with Gov. Phil Scott in the Vermont Public studio, moderated by Vermont Edition host Mikaela Lefrak. Source