2028
2028 presidential average
Vance vs. Newsom. Newsom leads by 2.7 points in the OnPoint average of 17 public polls, weighted by recency, sample size, voter screen and pollster grade.
Voter sample
Average over time
Each dot is one pollSpreadMargin over time
Trend lines
LOWESS, each poll counts onceAll polls
17 of 17| OnPoint average | Feb 28, 2026 | 17 polls | 44.1 | 46.8 | Newsom +2.7 |
| The Public Sentiment InstituteNR | Feb 28, 26 | 316RV | 43 | 38 | Vance +5.0 |
| The Public Sentiment InstituteNR | Feb 28, 26 | 250LV | 41 | 46 | Newsom +5.0 |
| Big Data PollA+ | Feb 18, 26 | 1,805LV | 47 | 53 | Newsom +6.4 |
| YouGov / YahooC | Feb 12, 26 | 511LV | 43 | 49 | Newsom +6.0 |
| ZogbyNR | Jan 7, 26 | 891LV | 45 | 41 | Vance +3.6 |
| The Argument/VerasightNR | Nov 17, 25 | 1,508RV | 46 | 54 | Newsom +7.2 |
| Morning ConsultC- | Nov 16, 25 | 2,201RV | 42 | 41 | Vance +1.0 |
| Overton InsightsNR | Oct 29, 25 | 1,200RV | 43 | 46 | Newsom +3.0 |
| Echelon InsightsB | Oct 20, 25 | 1,010LV | 46 | 47 | Newsom +1.0 |
| YouGov / UMass LowellB- | Oct 20, 25 | 1,000A | 32 | 36 | Newsom +4.0 |
| EmersonB+ | Oct 14, 25 | 1,000RV | 46 | 45 | Vance +0.6 |
| YouGov / YahooC | Sep 2, 25 | 1,690A | 41 | 49 | Newsom +8.0 |