2026 forecast
Ohio Senate forecast
Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted. The model has Brown ahead by 4.4 points, winning 81 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
88 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.8 and R +1.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +3.3 | |
| co/efficient (R) | 925 LV | 3d | D +2.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 760 LV | 4d | D +5.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | 616 LV | 8d | D +2.7 |
| YouGov | 3,780 LV | 9d | D +3.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 10d | D +1.0 |
| Big Data Poll | 682 LV | 12d | D +4.0 |
| NPR/Marist | 1,298 RV | 12d | D +5.5 |
| Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network | 500 LV | 12d | D +1.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 695 LV | 16d | D +2.2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,115 LV | 16d | D +2.4 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,085 LV | 23d | D +4.3 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 1,000 LV | 29d | D +2.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 30d | D +6.7 |
| Abacus Data | 306 LV | 42d | D +4.5 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV | 57d | D +5.1 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,008 RV | 60d | D +6.3 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | 66d | D +2.9 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 601 LV | 103d | R +3.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | 800 LV | 115d | D +4.3 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | 127d | D +2.9 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,015 RV | 130d | D +6.3 |
| Emerson College | 850 RV | 305d | R +1.6 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 800 RV | 360d | D +0.4 |
| Hart Research | 800 LV | 382d | D +3.4 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 RV | 416d | R +4.6 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Brown | Husted |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 46.2 | 49.9 |
| Women | 54% | 53.7 | 42.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 54.9 | 41.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 50.8 | 45.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 47.2 | 48.9 |
| 65+ | 30% | 50.9 | 45.2 |
| RaceWhite | 82% | 43.4 | 52.6 |
| Black | 11% | 87.6 | 8.7 |
| Latino | 3% | 66.5 | 29.6 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 74.0 | 21.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 38.2 | 57.9 |
| White women | 45% | 47.8 | 48.2 |
| Black men | 5% | 86.5 | 9.8 |
| Black women | 6% | 88.6 | 7.7 |
| Latino men | 1% | 63.7 | 32.4 |
| Latino women | 1% | 69.4 | 26.7 |
| All other races | 4% | 74.0 | 21.5 |