How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Kansas Governor
Cindy Holscher vs Ty Masterson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2536
Raised $811K against $1.5M for Ty Masterson.
- Cash weight 2013
$65K in the bank against $430K for Ty Masterson.
- Early vote weight 1556
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 7.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.90 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Cindy Holscher.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $65K against $430K.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2564
Raised $1.5M against $811K for Cindy Holscher.
- Cash weight 2087
$430K in the bank against $65K for Cindy Holscher.
- Early vote weight 1544
Registered Republicans cast 43% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 7.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.90 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Ty Masterson.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −6 Contested items in the watchdog file. 3 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Cindy Holscher leads by 3.0 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 34,271 votes; a one point swing is about 5,750 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.4 and D +11.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +3.7. Your best recent poll is Washington Post/Schar School at D +6.0; your worst is On Point Polling at R +6.5. 10 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Johnson, a projected net 66,541 votes; Douglas, a projected net 30,143 votes; Wyandotte, a projected net 21,868 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sedgwick, D +5.6, 16.1% of the vote; Leavenworth, R +5.8, 2.7% of the vote; Crawford, D +3.2, 1.2% of the vote; Harvey, R +3.8, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Cindy Holscher runs furthest behind in McPherson, Johnson, Saline. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 88% of voters, 47 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.39 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.50 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 55 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.93 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Cindy Holscher: Immigration voters 21 to 77, Small counties 36 to 62, Voters who can afford daily costs 44 to 54. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$65K cash against $430K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 7.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.7 points toward Cindy Holscher. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Ty Masterson's strongest asset
Cash: $430K in the bank against $65K for Cindy Holscher.
- Close the gap
Ty Masterson trails by 3.0 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 17,135 voters switching sides, or 34,271 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.2 and R +5.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +3.7. Your best recent poll is On Point Polling at R +6.5; your worst is Washington Post/Schar School at D +6.0. 10 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Butler, a projected net 6,368 votes; Pottawatomie, a projected net 3,745 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 3,692 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sedgwick, D +5.6, 16.1% of the vote; Leavenworth, R +5.8, 2.7% of the vote; Crawford, D +3.2, 1.2% of the vote; Harvey, R +3.8, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ty Masterson runs furthest behind in Ellis, Lyon, Crawford. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 88% of voters, 51 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.39 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.50 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 43 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.93 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ty Masterson: Black voters 17 to 81, Independents 23 to 73, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 29 to 68. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$430K cash against $65K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 43% of the 375,937 ballots in Kansas so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 7.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.7 points away from Ty Masterson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Cindy Holscher's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Holscher
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | D +22.9 | 25.2% | +66,541 |
| Douglas | D +57.1 | 4.6% | +30,143 |
| Wyandotte | D +49.2 | 3.9% | +21,868 |
| Shawnee | D +20.9 | 6.3% | +15,080 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sedgwick | D +5.6 | 16.1% | +10,297 |
| Leavenworth | R +5.8 | 2.7% | -1,844 |
| Crawford | D +3.2 | 1.2% | +447 |
| Harvey | R +3.8 | 1.2% | -536 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| McPherson | R +29.4 | 1.1% | -3,662 |
| Johnson | D +22.9 | 25.2% | +66,541 |
| Saline | R +15.7 | 1.8% | -3,181 |
The coalition
Holscher against Masterson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters88% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202470% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Voters without a degree58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.8
- Voters who can afford daily costs41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. A populist cost of living pitch: she will take on corporations and billionaires, will not be bought, and Masterson is Brownback 2.0 who failed to deliver property tax relief with a supermajority. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Masterson and Trump call her a socialist and the most radical candidate in state history, and the RGA says she opposed capping property taxes and flipped on data centers after voting for SB 98. Source
- Strongest coalition. Organized labor, with the Teamsters, the Kansas AFL-CIO, KNEA, AFT, SEIU, UAW and UFCW, plus a reunited party establishment led by Kelly. Source
- Weak spot in polling. Name recognition: 12 percent had not heard of her and 15 percent were neutral in Emerson's September 15 to 16 poll, which had her down 44 to 51. Unaffiliated voters outnumber Democrats by more than 50,000. Source
- Recent event. On October 26 she called Masterson a stooge for Big Tech after Building the Future put more than $1.5 million behind him; a week earlier she thanked Trump for shouting her out after he called her a radical lunatic. Source
- Money gap. She had $64,933.65 cash on July 23 against Masterson's $430,211.71, and the RGA's about $6.9 million reservation dwarfs KVI's $2.755 million. Source
Top donor blocs: Labor unions, Party and leadership, Small donors
- Main message. Property tax relief and affordability: no Kansan taxed out of a home, farm or business, a 3 percent cap on assessed value growth, and Holscher as too radical for Kansas. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Brownback 2.0 plus a Koch funded GoCreate post paying $217,350 that rivals call a no-show job, along with big tech tax breaks and his 2010 bankruptcy; he denies writing the Brownback plan and WSU defends his role. Source
- Strongest coalition. Trump's base plus farm groups, with the Farm Bureau PAC, Kansas Grain and Feed and Agribusiness Retailers, and some building trades and transport unions. Source
- Weak spot in polling. He is underwater at 40 favorable and 44 unfavorable while Holscher is net positive, and he led independents only 47 to 45 in Emerson's September 15 to 16 poll. Source
- Recent event. Building the Future, a pro data center super PAC, put more than $1.5 million behind him on October 26, a week after Trump reaffirmed his endorsement at a Park City rally. Source
- Money gap. He held $430,211.71 on July 23 to Holscher's $64,933.65, and the RGA reserved about $6.9 million to the DGA's $2.755 million through KVI. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, AI industry, Sugar and agriculture
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.2 and R +5.4
- Polling average
- R +3.7
- Partisan lean
- R +14.9
- Early vote effect
- D +0.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 479 LV | R +6.5 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 0 | 600 LV | R +2.5 |
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 1,301 LV | R +3.9 |
| CNN/SSRS | 0 | 838 LV | R +6.1 |
| Washington Post/Schar School | 0 | 1,000 LV | D +6.0 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 0 | 800 LV | R +3.2 |
| YouGov | 11 | 2,255 LV | R +3.8 |
| New York Times/Siena College | 15 | 605 LV | R +5.7 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 29 | 750 LV | R +6.2 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 29 | 800 LV | D +0.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 35 | 915 LV | R +4.0 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Holscher | Masterson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $811K | $1.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $65K | $430K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$4.2M
The early vote
Kansas, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 375,937
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.8
- Forecast expected
- R +8.3
- Against expectation
- 7.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-06Logan Phillips analyst
On Breaking Points he said Democrats have a shot in the Kansas governor race with a two to three point polling gap and that the Senate race is getting very uncomfortable for Roger Marshall. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-19Ty Masterson rally in Park City
Spoke alongside President Trump at a Monday night rally at Heartland Credit Union Arena where Trump affirmed his endorsement. Source