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Oklahoma Governor
Cyndi Munson vs Mike Mazzei
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2512
Raised $1.7M against $12.5M for Mike Mazzei.
- Early vote weight 1543
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 3.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1572
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.66 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for Cyndi Munson.
- Activity weight 1025
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Money weight 2588
Raised $12.5M against $1.7M for Cyndi Munson.
- Early vote weight 1557
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 3.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1528
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.66 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.2 points of that tide, a headwind for Mike Mazzei.
- Activity weight 1050
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Cyndi Munson trails by 2.4 and wins 35% of simulations. Closing it takes about 15,990 voters switching sides, or 31,979 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.6 and D +7.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +6.0. Your best recent poll is Workbench Strategy (D) at R +5.5; your worst is Workbench Strategy (D) at R +5.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Oklahoma, a projected net 71,953 votes; Tulsa, a projected net 33,855 votes; Cleveland, a projected net 16,515 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Canadian, R +6.3, 4.4% of the vote; Comanche, D +3.5, 2.3% of the vote; Muskogee, R +2.4, 1.5% of the vote; Cherokee, D +5.6, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Cyndi Munson runs furthest behind in Le Flore, Washington, Wagoner. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 45 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.12 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 46 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.26 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 47 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.21 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Cyndi Munson: Immigration voters 24 to 74, Small counties 36 to 62, Voters who can afford daily costs 43 to 55. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 3.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points away from Cyndi Munson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Mike Mazzei's strongest asset
Money: Raised $12.5M against $1.7M for Cyndi Munson.
- Protect the lead
Mike Mazzei leads by 2.4 in the forecast and wins 65% of simulations. The cushion is about 31,979 votes; a one point swing is about 6,553 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.1 and R +11.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +6.0. Your best recent poll is Workbench Strategy (D) at R +5.5; your worst is Workbench Strategy (D) at R +5.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Rogers, a projected net 9,675 votes; Wagoner, a projected net 7,478 votes; Le Flore, a projected net 6,549 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Canadian, R +6.3, 4.4% of the vote; Comanche, D +3.5, 2.3% of the vote; Muskogee, R +2.4, 1.5% of the vote; Cherokee, D +5.6, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Mike Mazzei runs furthest behind in Payne, Cherokee, Muskogee. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 53 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.12 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 52 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.26 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 51 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.21 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Mike Mazzei: Black voters 18 to 80, Independents 18 to 78, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 25 to 72. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 38,910 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 3.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points toward Mike Mazzei. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Cyndi Munson's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Munson
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | D +29.0 | 19% | +71,953 |
| Tulsa | D +15.6 | 16.6% | +33,855 |
| Cleveland | D +15.8 | 8% | +16,515 |
| Payne | D +14.7 | 2% | +3,846 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian | R +6.3 | 4.4% | -3,701 |
| Comanche | D +3.5 | 2.3% | +1,037 |
| Muskogee | R +2.4 | 1.5% | -480 |
| Cherokee | D +5.6 | 1.2% | +870 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Flore | R +44.3 | 1.1% | -6,549 |
| Washington | R +22.1 | 1.5% | -4,255 |
| Wagoner | R +24.2 | 2.4% | -7,478 |
The coalition
Munson against Mazzei among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters82% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters without a degree64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- Voters who can afford daily costs42% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.1 and R +11.6
- Polling average
- R +6.0
- Partisan lean
- R +33.4
- Early vote effect
- R +0.6
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Workbench Strategy (D) | 2 | 600 LV | R +5.5 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Munson | Mazzei | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.7M | $12.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | n/a | n/a |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Oklahoma, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 38,910
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +3.1
- Forecast expected
- D +0.1
- Against expectation
- 3.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-22Kyle Kondik analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Oklahoma governor race between Mike Mazzei and Cyndi Munson from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Source