How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Pennsylvania Governor
Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2589
Raised $31.7M against $3.8M for Stacy Garrity.
- Cash weight 2094
$19.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Stacy Garrity.
- Early vote weight 1583
Registered Democrats cast 65% of the 1,005,724 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 3.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1567
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.50 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Josh Shapiro.
- Activity weight 1025
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Money weight 2511
Raised $3.8M against $31.7M for Josh Shapiro.
- Cash weight 206
$1.3M in the bank against $19.8M for Josh Shapiro.
- Early vote weight 1518
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 1,005,724 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 65% for the other party. That is 3.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1533
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.50 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Stacy Garrity.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $1.3M against $19.8M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Josh Shapiro leads by 25.1 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 1,518,639 votes; a one point swing is about 30,288 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +18.8 and D +31.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +24.7. Your best recent poll is Bravo Group/PennLive at D +28.8; your worst is Z to A Research (D) at D +17.8. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Philadelphia, a projected net 505,180 votes; Allegheny, a projected net 305,015 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 219,093 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Lancaster, D +8.3, 4.1% of the vote; York, D +2.1, 3.5% of the vote; Westmoreland, D +3.8, 3.0% of the vote; Washington, D +7.0, 1.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Josh Shapiro runs furthest behind in Franklin, Philadelphia, Chester. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 84% of voters, 58 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.21 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 61 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 60 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Josh Shapiro: Immigration voters 23 to 74, Small counties 38 to 59, Midsize counties 51 to 46. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$19.8M cash against $1.3M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 65% of the 1,005,724 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 3.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points away from Josh Shapiro. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Stacy Garrity's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- Close the gap
Stacy Garrity trails by 25.1 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 759,319 voters switching sides, or 1,518,639 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +31.5 and D +18.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +24.7. Your best recent poll is Z to A Research (D) at D +17.8; your worst is Bravo Group/PennLive at D +28.8. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Franklin, a projected net 16,979 votes; Bedford, a projected net 11,282 votes; Somerset, a projected net 10,397 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Lancaster, D +8.3, 4.1% of the vote; York, D +2.1, 3.5% of the vote; Westmoreland, D +3.8, 3.0% of the vote; Washington, D +7.0, 1.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Stacy Garrity runs furthest behind in Cambria, Beaver, Washington. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 84% of voters, 40 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.21 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 37 to 61, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 38 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Stacy Garrity: Black voters 10 to 88, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 16 to 81, Moderates 19 to 78. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $19.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 1,005,724 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 65% for the other party. That is 3.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points toward Stacy Garrity. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Josh Shapiro's strongest asset
Cash: $19.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Stacy Garrity.
The map for Shapiro
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | D +79.1 | 10.5% | +505,180 |
| Allegheny | D +48.3 | 10.4% | +305,015 |
| Montgomery | D +48.5 | 7.5% | +219,093 |
| Delaware | D +48.2 | 4.7% | +135,982 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | D +8.3 | 4.1% | +20,587 |
| York | D +2.1 | 3.5% | +4,418 |
| Westmoreland | D +3.8 | 3% | +6,922 |
| Washington | D +7.0 | 1.7% | +7,217 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | R +23.6 | 1.2% | -16,979 |
| Philadelphia | D +79.1 | 10.5% | +505,180 |
| Chester | D +36.8 | 4.6% | +103,566 |
The coalition
Shapiro against Garrity among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters84% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.2
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202472% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Men46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties7% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
- Midsize counties29% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Shapiro had raised about $55 million since the start of 2025 by the September 14, 2026 report, per [Spotlight PA]( and his campaign says more than $60 million since he took office, per the [Inquirer]( His Republican opponent Stacy Garrity had a bit over $5 million. Through early June 2026 he had more than 45,000 contributors, an average gift of $848, 82 donors at $100,000 or more, and 51 percent of his dollars from outside Pennsylvania, per [Public Source via the Capital-Star]( The money is broad, so no single bloc dominates. Four interests combine large money with a live decision on his desk:
- Labor unions. At least $1.6 million in named 2026 union checks from the Carpenters, IBEW Local 98, AFSCME and the teachers union. Live levers: transit money tied to his skill game tax, the FY 2027 to 2028 budget, and whether Pennsylvania opts in to the new federal tax credit scholarships.
Top donor blocs: Labor unions, Billionaire megadonor, Party and leadership
- Garrity had raised a bit over $5 million since the start of 2025 by the September 14 report, against about $55 million for Josh Shapiro, per [Spotlight PA]( She entered the final stretch with about $1.4 million and had spent about $440,000 on advertising in the summer period, $204,000 of it on TV, per [Public Source]( Her money is mostly in state and small. About 86 percent came from Pennsylvania and her average gift was $457. Three interests combine money with a live decision:
- The skill game industry. She accepted a $33,500 flight from Pace-O-Matic founder Michael Pace. The company's PAC gave her $5,000. Her largest donor network, Bob Asher and his PA Future Fund at $345,000 in named 2026 gifts, runs through a man wire copy describes as a registered Pace-O-Matic lobbyist. Citizens Alliance, funded by Pace-O-Matic, pledged 750,000 doors for her. She backs the industry's flat $500 per machine fee.
Top donor blocs: Gambling, Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +25.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +31.5 and D +18.8
- Polling average
- D +24.7
- Partisan lean
- R +0.2
- Early vote effect
- R +0.6
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | D +23.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 0 | 430 LV | D +21.7 |
| Bravo Group/PennLive | 4 | 628 RV | D +28.8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 10 | 1,159 LV | D +23.9 |
| Z to A Research (D) | 14 | 630 LV | D +17.8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | 15 | 700 LV | D +20.1 |
| Bravo Group/PennLive | 23 | 624 RV | D +25.7 |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 23 | 615 LV | D +19.3 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Shapiro | Garrity | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $31.7M | $3.8M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $19.8M | $1.3M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Pennsylvania, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,005,724
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +39.6
- Forecast expected
- D +43.1
- Against expectation
- 3.5 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-09-03Kyle Kondik analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Gov. Josh Shapiro's race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-26Stacy Garrity event in Lebanon
Toured Henry Molded Products and spoke to supporters with Rep. Dan Meuser. Source
- 2026-10-25Josh Shapiro rally in University Park
Bus tour rally in front of Old Main on the Penn State campus hosted by Penn State College Democrats. Source
- 2026-10-24Josh Shapiro rally in Pittsburgh
Stop at Fiori's pizza in Brookline, then an evening rally at the IBEW Local 5 hall on the South Side with Lt. Gov. Austin Davis. Source