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25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 forecast

Pennsylvania Governor forecast

Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity. The model has Shapiro ahead by 25.4 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +25.4Polls D +24.6Updated October 9, 2026

County simulation

67 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +59.3: 2 simulationsD +57.8: 0 simulationsD +56.4: 1 simulationsD +54.9: 0 simulationsD +53.5: 0 simulationsD +52.0: 0 simulationsD +50.6: 2 simulationsD +49.1: 0 simulationsD +47.7: 2 simulationsD +46.2: 4 simulationsD +44.8: 2 simulationsD +43.3: 7 simulationsD +41.9: 17 simulationsD +40.4: 27 simulationsD +39.0: 30 simulationsD +37.5: 71 simulationsD +36.1: 102 simulationsD +34.6: 210 simulationsD +33.2: 325 simulationsD +31.7: 475 simulationsD +30.3: 689 simulationsD +28.8: 854 simulationsD +27.4: 1050 simulationsD +25.9: 1075 simulationsD +24.5: 1215 simulationsD +23.0: 1100 simulationsD +21.6: 942 simulationsD +20.1: 664 simulationsD +18.7: 470 simulationsD +17.2: 304 simulationsD +15.8: 172 simulationsD +14.3: 85 simulationsD +12.9: 56 simulationsD +11.4: 26 simulationsD +10.0: 9 simulationsD +8.5: 4 simulationsD +7.1: 3 simulationsD +5.6: 1 simulationsD +4.2: 2 simulationsD +2.7: 2 simulationsD +60.0D +2.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +31.8 and D +19.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +24.6
Quinnipiac University1,159 LV4dD +24.4
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D)630 RV8dD +18.1
Susquehanna Polling & Research700 LV9dD +20.2
Bravo Group/PennLive624 RV17dD +26.0
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena615 LV18dD +19.7
Franklin & Marshall College501 RV47dD +24.2
PennLive711 RV48dD +29.4
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena760 LV49dD +15.7
National Public Affairs (R)600 LV71dD +10.2
Quinnipiac University895 RV88dD +12.7
PennLive644 RV106dD +23.2
Franklin & Marshall College546 RV117dD +21.1
MAD Global Strategy600 LV120dD +17.1
Quinnipiac University1,579 RV375dD +15.7
Susquehanna Polling & Research700 LV376dD +17.1

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareShapiroGarrity
GenderMen47%57.040.8
Women53%65.632.2
Age18 to 2914%67.330.4
30 to 4421%61.736.2
45 to 6433%59.138.7
65+32%61.536.3
RaceWhite81%55.642.2
Black10%94.33.9
Latino5%75.022.8
Asian and other5%82.614.9
Race and genderWhite men38%49.748.0
White women43%60.737.0
Black men5%93.84.4
Black women5%94.83.4
Latino men3%73.224.6
Latino women3%76.920.9
All other races5%82.614.9