How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Maryland Governor
Wes Moore vs Dan Cox
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2591
Raised $1.7M against $163K for Dan Cox.
- Cash weight 2098
$6.5M in the bank against $136K for Dan Cox.
- Early vote weight 1583
Registered Democrats cast 69% of the 357,650 ballots in Maryland so far, against 15% for the other party. That is 2.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.87 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for Wes Moore.
- Money weight 259
Raised $163K against $1.7M for Wes Moore.
- Cash weight 202
$136K in the bank against $6.5M for Wes Moore.
- Early vote weight 1517
Registered Republicans cast 15% of the 357,650 ballots in Maryland so far, against 69% for the other party. That is 2.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.87 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.2 points of that tide, a headwind for Dan Cox.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $136K against $6.5M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Wes Moore leads by 33.5 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 837,825 votes; a one point swing is about 12,524 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +27.0 and D +39.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +27.0. Your best recent poll is UMBC Institute of Politics at D +26.6; your worst is UMBC Institute of Politics at D +26.6. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Prince George's, a projected net 266,142 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 253,301 votes; Baltimore city, a projected net 149,800 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Frederick, D +7.1, 5.0% of the vote; Harford, R +10.2, 4.8% of the vote; Calvert, R +8.4, 1.7% of the vote; Wicomico, R +6.1, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Wes Moore runs furthest behind in Worcester, Frederick, Charles. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 60% of voters, 51 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points; Men, 44% of voters, 56 to 32, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.19 points; Midsize counties, 26% of voters, 41 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.29 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Wes Moore: Immigration voters 22 to 67, Small counties 33 to 55, Midsize counties 41 to 46. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.5M cash against $136K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 69% of the 357,650 ballots in Maryland so far, against 15% for the other party. That is 2.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Wes Moore. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Dan Cox's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- Close the gap
Dan Cox trails by 33.5 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 418,913 voters switching sides, or 837,825 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +39.4 and D +27.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +27.0. Your best recent poll is UMBC Institute of Politics at D +26.6; your worst is UMBC Institute of Politics at D +26.6. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Carroll, a projected net 14,403 votes; Washington, a projected net 12,793 votes; Harford, a projected net 12,126 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Frederick, D +7.1, 5.0% of the vote; Harford, R +10.2, 4.8% of the vote; Calvert, R +8.4, 1.7% of the vote; Wicomico, R +6.1, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Dan Cox runs furthest behind in Allegany, Baltimore, Carroll. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 60% of voters, 36 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points; Men, 44% of voters, 32 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.19 points; Midsize counties, 26% of voters, 46 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.29 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Dan Cox: Black voters 11 to 78, Asian and other voters 16 to 72, Large counties 18 to 70. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$136K cash against $6.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 15% of the 357,650 ballots in Maryland so far, against 69% for the other party. That is 2.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Dan Cox. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Wes Moore's strongest asset
Cash: $6.5M in the bank against $136K for Dan Cox.
The map for Moore
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prince George's | D +78.1 | 13.6% | +266,142 |
| Montgomery | D +58.6 | 17.3% | +253,301 |
| Baltimore city | D +73.5 | 8.1% | +149,800 |
| Baltimore | D +32.8 | 13.5% | +110,963 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick | D +7.1 | 5% | +8,807 |
| Harford | R +10.2 | 4.8% | -12,126 |
| Calvert | R +8.4 | 1.7% | -3,657 |
| Wicomico | R +6.1 | 1.5% | -2,335 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester | R +25.2 | 1.1% | -6,728 |
| Frederick | D +7.1 | 5% | +8,807 |
| Charles | D +39.8 | 2.9% | +28,968 |
The coalition
Moore against Cox among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Men44% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.2
- Midsize counties26% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
- Small counties5% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties5% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
- Midsize counties26% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +33.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +39.4 and D +27.0
- Polling average
- D +27.0
- Partisan lean
- D +31.0
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC Institute of Politics | 18 | 776 LV | D +26.6 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Moore | Cox | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.7M | $163K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $6.5M | $136K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Maryland, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 357,650
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +53.9
- Forecast expected
- D +56.8
- Against expectation
- 2.9 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.