How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
North Carolina Senate
Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2578
Raised $47.2M against $13.4M for Michael Whatley.
- Cash weight 2093
$12.5M in the bank against $916K for Michael Whatley. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1538
Outside groups spent $28.1M helping Roy Cooper and $45.2M helping Michael Whatley.
- Early vote weight 1562
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 26% for the other party. That is 4.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Roy Cooper.
- Activity weight 1050
7 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $374K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2522
Raised $13.4M against $47.2M for Roy Cooper.
- Cash weight 207
$916K in the bank against $12.5M for Roy Cooper. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1562
Outside groups spent $45.2M helping Michael Whatley and $28.1M helping Roy Cooper.
- Early vote weight 1538
Registered Republicans cast 26% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Michael Whatley.
- Activity weight 1050
9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $1.1M in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $916K against $12.5M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Roy Cooper leads by 9.5 in the forecast and wins 98% of simulations. The cushion is about 419,046 votes; a one point swing is about 22,125 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +3.5 and D +15.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.4. Your best recent poll is Harper Polling (R) at D +15.0; your worst is RedBox Research (D) at D +4.8. 20 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Wake, a projected net 206,328 votes; Mecklenburg, a projected net 194,475 votes; Durham, a projected net 113,436 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Cabarrus, R +0.5, 2.0% of the vote; Alamance, D +0.9, 1.6% of the vote; Henderson, R +3.7, 1.3% of the vote; Craven, R +8.0, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Roy Cooper runs furthest behind in Johnston, Brunswick, Gaston. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 75% of voters, 47 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.73 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.43 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 56 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Roy Cooper: Immigration voters 21 to 77, Midsize counties 45 to 52, Small counties 45 to 52. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$12.5M cash against $916K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 26% for the other party. That is 4.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points away from Roy Cooper. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Michael Whatley's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $45.2M helping Michael Whatley and $28.1M helping Roy Cooper.
- Close the gap
Michael Whatley trails by 9.5 and wins 2% of simulations. Closing it takes about 209,523 voters switching sides, or 419,046 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +15.3 and D +3.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.4. Your best recent poll is RedBox Research (D) at D +4.8; your worst is Harper Polling (R) at D +15.0. 20 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Randolph, a projected net 26,890 votes; Davidson, a projected net 23,877 votes; Iredell, a projected net 20,324 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Cabarrus, R +0.5, 2.0% of the vote; Alamance, D +0.9, 1.6% of the vote; Henderson, R +3.7, 1.3% of the vote; Craven, R +8.0, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Michael Whatley runs furthest behind in Onslow, Orange. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 75% of voters, 50 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.73 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.43 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 42 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Michael Whatley: Black voters 19 to 79, Large counties 28 to 70, Independents 27 to 68. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$916K cash against $12.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 26% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points toward Michael Whatley. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Roy Cooper's strongest asset
Cash: $12.5M in the bank against $916K for Michael Whatley.
The map for Cooper
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake | D +39.4 | 11.8% | +206,328 |
| Mecklenburg | D +43.7 | 10.1% | +194,475 |
| Durham | D +74.5 | 3.4% | +113,436 |
| Guilford | D +31.0 | 5% | +69,186 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cabarrus | R +0.5 | 2% | -477 |
| Alamance | D +0.9 | 1.6% | +639 |
| Henderson | R +3.7 | 1.3% | -2,075 |
| Craven | R +8.0 | 1% | -3,462 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnston | R +17.7 | 2.1% | -16,057 |
| Brunswick | R +19.4 | 1.9% | -16,016 |
| Gaston | R +18.4 | 2% | -16,335 |
The coalition
Cooper against Whatley among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters75% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202469% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Small counties15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.8
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. cost of living, "make stuff cost less," covering rent, utilities, child care and health care. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. crime and the 2021 prisoner release settlement, tied by Trump and Whatley to the Zarutska killing, plus a slow Helene response. Fact checkers disproved the early release claim about Decarlos Brown. Source
- Counterattack. the campaign brands Whatley a "Big Oil lobbyist" and ran an ad using Whatley's own dated words that inflation and prices were down; FactCheck.org found the quotes accurate but outdated. Source
- State of the race. a WRAL and WSOC poll had Cooper 54 and Whatley 40 among likely voters; only 37 percent approved of Trump. Source
- Notable recent event. SLF and Old North Action cut North Carolina ad reservations in late September and early October, and Whatley ended TV ads early in October to shift to digital. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Party and leadership, Utilities and energy
- Main message. public safety and crime, jobs, take home pay and lower taxes, with Trump's backing. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. a D.C. insider and Big Oil lobbyist who left his lobbying career off his bio and still holds utility stock. Source
- Strongest coalition. Trump's base; Trump and Vance both rallied for him in October, Vance in Hendersonville and Trump in Greenville. Source
- Notable recent event. SLF and Old North Action cut North Carolina reservations in late September and early October, and Whatley ended TV ads early to go digital, with $916,000 left at September 30. Source
- Polling context. WRAL and WSOC had Cooper 54, Whatley 40 among likely voters. Source
Top donor blocs: Oil and gas, Utilities and data centers, Party and leadership
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +9.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +15.3 and D +3.5
- Polling average
- D +8.4
- Partisan lean
- R +1.8
- Early vote effect
- R +1.1
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | D +13.8 |
| Harper Polling (R) | 0 | 600 LV | D +10.0 |
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 3,292 LV | D +4.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 0 | 722 LV | D +9.8 |
| High Point University/YouGov | 0 | 620 LV | D +13.2 |
| WRAL/SurveyUSA | 4 | 700 LV | D +13.4 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 5 | 1,091 LV | D +9.2 |
| Elon University/YouGov | 7 | 600 LV | D +12.2 |
| Change Research for Forward Carolina (D) | 8 | 900 LV | D +8.4 |
| East Carolina University | 12 | 810 LV | D +7.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 16 | 642 LV | D +11.8 |
| Quantus Insights | 23 | 686 LV | D +6.8 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Cooper | Whatley | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $47.2M | $13.4M |
| Spent | $34.7M | $12.5M |
| Cash on hand | $12.5M | $916K |
| Outside money for | $28.1M | $45.2M |
| Google ads | $374K | $1.1M |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Roy Cooper$30.2M
- WinSenate against Michael Whatley$21.7M
- No Going Back PAC against Roy Cooper$9.9M
- Americans for Prosperity Action for Michael Whatley$4.2M
- NC First PAC against Roy Cooper$1.2M
- Progress North Carolina Action for Roy Cooper$1.2M
- Planned Parenthood Votes North Carolina for Roy Cooper$892K
- AB PAC for Roy Cooper$882K
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$9.6M
- All filers, net cut in IE filings Oct 21 to 22 Source$-525505
- NC First PAC, IE opposing Cooper, dated Oct 19 Source$1.2M
The early vote
North Carolina, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 2,353,233
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +13.7
- Forecast expected
- D +18.5
- Against expectation
- 4.8 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Agreed Democrats will flip the North Carolina seat. Source
- 2026-10-20David Axelrod commentator, leans D
Agreed Democrats will flip North Carolina. Source
- 2026-10-06Nate Silver analyst
His Silver Bulletin forecast gave Roy Cooper a 95.3% chance to beat Michael Whatley. Source
- 2026-10-06Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved North Carolina from Lean D to Likely D. Source
- 2026-10-02David Chalian analyst
Called the Senate Leadership Fund pausing $30 million for Whatley an unbelievable development. Source
- 2026-08-13Harry Enten analyst
Highlighted Roy Cooper leading by 9 points in North Carolina, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Source
- 2026-08-11Nate Silver analyst
His forecast gave Roy Cooper a 90% chance of defeating Michael Whatley. Source
- 2026-07-01Harry Enten analyst
Said North Carolina, with Democrats up 7, was the only Senate seat Democrats could count on, arguing the math was not there for a majority. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-28JD Vance announced in Kinston
Announced Wednesday midterm rally hosted by Trump 47 Committee, Vance expected to speak at 2 p.m., venue not yet announced. Source
- 2026-10-24Roy Cooper tour stop in Greensboro
Saturday morning Make Stuff Cost Less tour stop outside the Barber Park early voting site, about 50 attendees. Source
- 2026-10-24Michael Whatley event in Wilmington
Defending Freedom press conference at New Hanover County GOP headquarters with Rep. David Rouzer. Source
- 2026-10-22Roy Cooper rally in Raleigh
Downtown Make Stuff Cost Less tour stop with about 150 supporters one week into early voting. Source
- 2026-10-20Donald Trump rally in Greenville
Rally at Pitt-Greenville Airport during early voting. Source
- 2026-10-20Howard Lutnick event in Greenville
Commerce Secretary appeared at the Trump rally. Source
- 2026-10-20Tim Scott rally in Greenville
The NRSC chairman made the case for Whatley and the GOP ticket at Trump's Greenville rally. Source
- 2026-10-20Michael Whatley rally in Greenville
Spoke at President Donald Trump's rally at Pitt Greenville Airport on the first week of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-19JD Vance rally in Hendersonville
Rally at Hyder Warehouse drawing an estimated 200 to 300 people. Source
- 2026-10-17Roy Cooper tour stop in Charlotte
Make Stuff Cost Less tour event, per a campaign release. Source
- 2026-10-17Michael Whatley event in Lillington
Spoke to elected officials and supporters at a sports bar. Source
- 2026-10-16Michael Whatley event in Gastonia
Cast his early vote in his hometown. Source