How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Hawaii Governor
Josh Green vs Gary Cordery
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2592
Raised $3.7M against $313K for Gary Cordery.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a tailwind for Josh Green.
- Money weight 258
Raised $313K against $3.7M for Josh Green.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a headwind for Gary Cordery.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Josh Green leads by 35.6 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 163,163 votes; a one point swing is about 2,289 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +26.3 and D +44.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Honolulu, a projected net 107,461 votes; Hawaii, a projected net 26,935 votes; Maui, a projected net 21,663 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Josh Green runs furthest behind in Kauai, Hawaii. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who can afford daily costs, 38% of voters, 62 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.89 points; White voters, 36% of voters, 59 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.81 points; 2024 voters who skipped 2022, 18% of voters, 62 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 0.90 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Josh Green: Immigration voters 38 to 62, White voters 59 to 41, Voters who can afford daily costs 62 to 38. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points toward Josh Green. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Gary Cordery's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- Close the gap
Gary Cordery trails by 35.6 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 81,581 voters switching sides, or 163,163 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +44.9 and D +26.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who can afford daily costs, 38% of voters, 38 to 62, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.89 points; White voters, 36% of voters, 41 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.81 points; 2024 voters who skipped 2022, 18% of voters, 38 to 62, where a 5 point gain is worth 0.90 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Gary Cordery: Corruption voters 21 to 79, Health care and Social Security voters 22 to 78, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 25 to 75. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.6 points away from Gary Cordery. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Josh Green's strongest asset
Money: Raised $3.7M against $313K for Gary Cordery.
The map for Green
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu | D +35.1 | 66.8% | +107,461 |
| Hawaii | D +38.0 | 15.5% | +26,935 |
| Maui | D +39.3 | 12% | +21,663 |
| Kauai | D +27.2 | 5.6% | +7,023 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kauai | D +27.2 | 5.6% | +7,023 |
| Hawaii | D +38.0 | 15.5% | +26,935 |
The coalition
Green against Cordery among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who can afford daily costs38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- White voters36% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.8
- 2024 voters who skipped 202218% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.9
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- White voters36% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.8
- Voters who can afford daily costs38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +35.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +44.9 and D +26.3
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- D +25.1
- Early vote effect
- D +0.6
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Green | Cordery | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.7M | $313K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | n/a | n/a |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Hawaii, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 210,302
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +26.7
- Forecast expected
- D +18.6
- Against expectation
- 8.1 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.