How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Arizona Governor
Katie Hobbs vs Andy Biggs
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2574
Raised $2.6M against $917K for Andy Biggs.
- Cash weight 2067
$2.4M in the bank against $1.2M for Andy Biggs.
- Air cover weight 1540
Outside groups spent $14.0M helping Katie Hobbs and $21.3M helping Andy Biggs.
- Early vote weight 1552
Registered Democrats cast 37% of the 1,543,211 ballots in Arizona so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 2.6 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Katie Hobbs.
- Activity weight 1050
6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- −4 Contested items in the watchdog file. 2 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2526
Raised $917K against $2.6M for Katie Hobbs.
- Cash weight 2033
$1.2M in the bank against $2.4M for Katie Hobbs.
- Air cover weight 1560
Outside groups spent $21.3M helping Andy Biggs and $14.0M helping Katie Hobbs.
- Early vote weight 1548
Registered Republicans cast 38% of the 1,543,211 ballots in Arizona so far, against 37% for the other party. That is 2.6 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Andy Biggs.
- Activity weight 1025
6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Katie Hobbs leads by 9.3 in the forecast and wins 95% of simulations. The cushion is about 297,559 votes; a one point swing is about 15,929 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +2.1 and D +16.7. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +7.9. Your best recent poll is HighGround Inc. at D +15.1; your worst is GQR for Hobbs (D) at D +2.6. 11 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Maricopa, a projected net 254,862 votes; Pima, a projected net 138,343 votes; Coconino, a projected net 23,476 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Yuma, R +3.9, 2.0% of the vote; Cochise, R +9.7, 1.8% of the vote; Navajo, R +3.1, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Katie Hobbs runs furthest behind in Yavapai, Pinal, Mohave. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 82% of voters, 56 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.10 points; White voters, 74% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.71 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 53 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.30 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Katie Hobbs: Immigration voters 23 to 74, Midsize counties 41 to 56, White voters 49 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $1.2M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 37% of the 1,543,211 ballots in Arizona so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 2.6 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Katie Hobbs. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Andy Biggs's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $21.3M helping Andy Biggs and $14.0M helping Katie Hobbs.
- Close the gap
Andy Biggs trails by 9.3 and wins 5% of simulations. Closing it takes about 148,779 voters switching sides, or 297,559 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +16.7 and D +2.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +7.9. Your best recent poll is GQR for Hobbs (D) at D +2.6; your worst is HighGround Inc. at D +15.1. 11 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Mohave, a projected net 46,150 votes; Yavapai, a projected net 37,891 votes; Pinal, a projected net 30,329 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Yuma, R +3.9, 2.0% of the vote; Cochise, R +9.7, 1.8% of the vote; Navajo, R +3.1, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Andy Biggs runs furthest behind in Maricopa, Yuma. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 82% of voters, 42 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.10 points; White voters, 74% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.71 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 44 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.30 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Andy Biggs: Black voters 18 to 79, Independents 24 to 71, Corruption voters 30 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $2.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 38% of the 1,543,211 ballots in Arizona so far, against 37% for the other party. That is 2.6 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Andy Biggs. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Katie Hobbs's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Hobbs
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | D +13.2 | 60.5% | +254,862 |
| Pima | D +28.2 | 15.4% | +138,343 |
| Coconino | D +34.4 | 2.1% | +23,476 |
| Apache | D +38.8 | 1% | +11,927 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuma | R +3.9 | 2% | -2,502 |
| Cochise | R +9.7 | 1.8% | -5,447 |
| Navajo | R +3.1 | 1.5% | -1,483 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yavapai | R +27.3 | 4.4% | -37,891 |
| Pinal | R +15.8 | 6% | -30,329 |
| Mohave | R +45.1 | 3.2% | -46,150 |
The coalition
Hobbs against Biggs among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties82% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- White voters74% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- White voters74% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Hobbs runs the best funded campaign in the race and leans on national party money routed through a county party, but the single interest with both large money and a live decision on her desk is a state contractor, not a national donor.
- Sunshine Residential Homes, the state's largest group home provider. About $550,000 in gifts across her inaugural fund or 2022 campaign, a legal defense fund and the state Democratic Party, set against Department of Child Safety rate increases from $149 to $234 per bed. The attorney general found no quid pro quo on August 21, 2026. The Auditor General probe is still open, and the next governor sets DCS rates and renewals.
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Social services contractors, Utilities and energy
- Biggs is a low budget candidate carried by one outside group. His own committee raised about $2.8 million through June, while Turning Point Action spent $18.3 million in a single month attacking Hobbs and promoting him.
- Turning Point Action. From about $459,000 in 2025 to $18.3 million in the month before October 20, 2026. Its live interests are election administration bills, the border task force he promises and the veto pen he would remove. Its 2025 ad money ran largely through 1Ten LLC, owned by state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who later subpoenaed Hobbs over the Sunshine Residential affair.
Top donor blocs: Trump world, Ideological groups, Small donors
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +9.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +16.7 and D +2.1
- Polling average
- D +7.9
- Partisan lean
- R +4.1
- Early vote effect
- D +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse for Norton (R) | 0 | 550 LV | D +8.6 |
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 2,686 LV | D +3.7 |
| HighGround Public Affairs | 0 | 400 LV | D +10.1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 0 | 511 LV | D +5.4 |
| KStrat for American Encore (R) | 0 | 900 LV | D +7.1 |
| HighGround Public Affairs | 7 | 400 LV | D +14.9 |
| GrayHouse for Norton (R) | 7 | 550 LV | D +8.5 |
| HighGround Inc. | 7 | 400 LV | D +15.1 |
| Steve Cortes for League of American Workers (R) | 9 | 1,513 LV | D +7.6 |
| Wick Research | 9 | 1,513 LV | D +6.8 |
| GQR for Hobbs (D) | 11 | 600 LV | D +2.6 |
| Equis Research (D) | 36 | 1,214 RV | D +6.1 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Hobbs | Biggs | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.6M | $917K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $2.4M | $1.2M |
| Outside money for | $14.0M | $21.3M |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$3.5M
The early vote
Arizona, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,543,211
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.7
- Forecast expected
- R +3.3
- Against expectation
- 2.6 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-26David Nir analyst, leans D
The Downballot's Morning Digest by Nir and Jeff Singer said Gov. Katie Hobbs and other Arizona Democrats lead statewide as the party aims to flip both legislative chambers. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22Andy Biggs event in Yuma
Campaigned at Yuma County Republican Party headquarters, pledging that Yuma's water would be protected. Source
- 2026-10-20Katie Hobbs rally in Casa Grande
Rallied supporters at the Landmark Event Center with John Giles, Sen. Mark Kelly, JoAnna Mendoza, Jonathan Nez and Gila River Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis. Source
- 2026-10-18Katie Hobbs event in Mesa
Held a canvass launch at the Mesa Copper State Victory office and sent volunteers out to talk with voters, per her campaign. Source
- 2026-10-18Andy Biggs rally in Buckeye
Spoke at a get out the vote rally hosted by Sine Kerr with Alexander Kolodin, Warren Petersen and State Sen. Tim Dunn. Source
- 2026-10-17Katie Hobbs event in Yuma
Rallied volunteers at a Copper State Victory canvass launch for the early vote weekend of action, per her campaign. Source
- 2026-10-17Katie Hobbs tour stop in Somerton
Toured Tovar Farms and discussed water security and costs for farmers, per her campaign. Source
- 2026-10-17Andy Biggs event in Phoenix
Joined running mate Sine Kerr and Turning Point Action volunteers at a Ballot Chase kickoff at the State Capitol. Source
- 2026-10-16Andy Biggs event in Tucson
Met voters about Pima County Republican turnout and his platform on affordability and public safety. Source
- 2026-10-14Donald Trump rally in Bullhead City
Rally at Laughlin Bullhead International Airport for Biggs and local Republicans. Source
- 2026-10-14Andy Biggs rally in Bullhead City
Spoke before President Trump at a rally at Laughlin Bullhead International Airport. Source
- 2026-10-03Katie Hobbs rally in Phoenix
Spoke with Attorney General Kris Mayes to Arizona AFL CIO and AFSCME members before they canvassed metro Phoenix. Source
- 2026-10-02Katie Hobbs event in Prescott
Launched a canvass for the Copper State Victory coordinated campaign ahead of the start of voting. Source