SearchThe Weighting Room
25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 forecast

Arizona Governor forecast

Katie Hobbs vs Andy Biggs. The model has Hobbs ahead by 9.8 points, winning 95 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +9.8Polls D +4.9Updated October 9, 2026

County simulation

15 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +49.1: 2 simulationsD +47.2: 0 simulationsD +45.4: 0 simulationsD +43.5: 0 simulationsD +41.7: 0 simulationsD +39.8: 0 simulationsD +38.0: 0 simulationsD +36.1: 2 simulationsD +34.3: 5 simulationsD +32.4: 4 simulationsD +30.6: 14 simulationsD +28.7: 14 simulationsD +26.9: 41 simulationsD +25.0: 60 simulationsD +23.2: 136 simulationsD +21.3: 175 simulationsD +19.5: 338 simulationsD +17.6: 503 simulationsD +15.8: 679 simulationsD +13.9: 930 simulationsD +12.1: 1103 simulationsD +10.2: 1204 simulationsD +8.4: 1258 simulationsD +6.5: 1092 simulationsD +4.7: 888 simulationsD +2.8: 623 simulationsD +1.0: 417 simulationsR +0.9: 251 simulationsR +2.7: 133 simulationsR +4.6: 64 simulationsR +6.4: 29 simulationsR +8.3: 14 simulationsR +10.1: 9 simulationsR +12.0: 6 simulationsR +13.8: 3 simulationsR +15.7: 0 simulationsR +17.5: 1 simulationsR +19.4: 1 simulationsR +21.2: 0 simulationsR +23.1: 1 simulationsD +50.0R +24.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.8 and D +2.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +4.9
GQR for Hobbs (D)600 LV5dD +3.4
Arizona State University1,300 RV35dD +12.0
NextGen Polling (R)1,627 LV51dD +3.2
HighGround, Inc.400 LV52dD +14.2
Quantus Insights780 LV53dD +7.7
Kreate Strategies (R)900 LV54dD +6.1
Noble Predictive Insights923 LV57dD +12.4
Stealth Analytics530 LV57dD +5.2
Grayhouse (R)600 LV59dD +6.3
The Tarrance Group (R)600 LV71dD +6.1
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan913 LV73dD +7.5
Noble Predictive Insights996 RV155dD +3.7
TIPP Insights (R)1,159 LV168dD +9.5
Noble Predictive Insights1,023 RV225dD +6.7
Center for Excellence in Polling519 LV258dD +8.9
NXTGenP (R)2,725 LV296dD +19.9
Emerson College850 RV333dD +2.3
Noble Predictive Insights948 RV417dD +1.7
Noble Predictive Insights1,026 RV511dD +1.7
Pulse Decision Science (R)501 LV548dD +6.2
Noble Predictive Insights1,006 RV603dD +1.7
Kreate Strategies (R)924 LV609dD +0.2

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareHobbsBiggs
GenderMen47%49.547.8
Women53%57.240.0
Age18 to 2915%56.640.5
30 to 4422%51.545.8
45 to 6431%52.045.3
65+32%55.142.2
RaceWhite67%45.352.1
Black5%83.913.4
Latino20%66.031.3
Asian and other9%72.124.7
Race and genderWhite men31%39.258.2
White women36%50.546.7
Black men2%81.715.7
Black women2%85.911.5
Latino men10%63.533.8
Latino women10%68.429.0
All other races9%72.124.7