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Rhode Island Senate
Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2595
Raised $3.6M against $196K for Raymond McKay.
- Cash weight 20100
$3.0M in the bank against $7K for Raymond McKay. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1576
Registered Democrats cast 43% of the 116,845 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 10% for the other party. That is 11.6 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jack Reed.
- Activity weight 1025
$127K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 255
Raised $196K against $3.6M for Jack Reed.
- Cash weight 200
$7K in the bank against $3.0M for Jack Reed. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1524
Registered Republicans cast 10% of the 116,845 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 11.6 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Raymond McKay.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $7K against $3.0M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jack Reed leads by 39.7 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 168,999 votes; a one point swing is about 2,130 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +32.8 and D +46.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +33.9. Your best recent poll is Emerson College/WPRI at D +34.6; your worst is University of New Hampshire at D +20.3. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Providence, a projected net 95,633 votes; Washington, a projected net 22,797 votes; Kent, a projected net 21,580 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jack Reed runs furthest behind in Washington, Newport, Bristol. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Incomes $125K and up, 11% of voters, 60 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 0.54 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jack Reed: Immigration voters 35 to 62, Incomes $125K and up 60 to 37, Men 64 to 33. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.0M cash against $7K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 43% of the 116,845 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 10% for the other party. That is 11.6 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.4 points away from Jack Reed. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Raymond McKay's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 10% of the 116,845 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 43% for the other party.
- Close the gap
Raymond McKay trails by 39.7 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 84,499 voters switching sides, or 168,999 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +46.9 and D +32.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +33.9. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at D +20.3; your worst is Emerson College/WPRI at D +34.6. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Raymond McKay runs furthest behind in Providence. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Incomes $125K and up, 11% of voters, 37 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 0.54 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Raymond McKay: Black voters 10 to 87, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 14 to 82, Corruption voters 15 to 83. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$7K cash against $3.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 10% of the 116,845 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 11.6 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.4 points toward Raymond McKay. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jack Reed's strongest asset
Cash: $3.0M in the bank against $7K for Raymond McKay.
The map for Reed
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | D +42.8 | 52.4% | +95,633 |
| Washington | D +35.2 | 15.2% | +22,797 |
| Kent | D +28.2 | 18% | +21,580 |
| Newport | D +46.7 | 8.9% | +17,627 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | D +35.2 | 15.2% | +22,797 |
| Newport | D +46.7 | 8.9% | +17,627 |
| Bristol | D +48.6 | 5.5% | +11,415 |
The coalition
Reed against McKay among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Incomes $125K and up11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Incomes $125K and up11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Men45% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +39.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +46.9 and D +32.8
- Polling average
- D +33.9
- Partisan lean
- D +15.7
- Early vote effect
- R +1.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WPRI | 4 | 800 LV | D +34.6 |
| Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research | 7 | 815 LV | D +23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 598 LV | D +20.3 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Reed | McKay | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.6M | $196K |
| Spent | $2.2M | $190K |
| Cash on hand | $3.0M | $7K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $127K | $0 |
The early vote
Rhode Island, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 116,845
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +33.6
- Forecast expected
- D +45.2
- Against expectation
- 11.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.