How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Minnesota Governor
Amy Klobuchar vs Lisa Demuth
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2580
Raised $12.5M against $3.1M for Lisa Demuth.
- Cash weight 2085
$3.5M in the bank against $618K for Lisa Demuth.
- Air cover weight 1517
Outside groups spent $1.3M helping Amy Klobuchar and $6.2M helping Lisa Demuth.
- National tide weight 1572
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.66 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for Amy Klobuchar.
- Activity weight 1025
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Money weight 2520
Raised $3.1M against $12.5M for Amy Klobuchar.
- Cash weight 2015
$618K in the bank against $3.5M for Amy Klobuchar.
- Air cover weight 1583
Outside groups spent $6.2M helping Lisa Demuth and $1.3M helping Amy Klobuchar.
- National tide weight 1528
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.66 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.2 points of that tide, a headwind for Lisa Demuth.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $618K against $3.5M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Amy Klobuchar leads by 14.2 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 395,163 votes; a one point swing is about 13,944 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.0 and D +21.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +10.2. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena at D +17.4; your worst is co/efficient (R) at D +5.9. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Hennepin, a projected net 306,721 votes; Ramsey, a projected net 130,855 votes; Dakota, a projected net 46,180 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Anoka, D +5.2, 6.3% of the vote; Scott, R +1.9, 2.7% of the vote; Carver, R +3.6, 2.1% of the vote; Rice, D +10.1, 1.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Amy Klobuchar runs furthest behind in Carver, Stearns, Wright. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 87% of voters, 53 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.37 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 56 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 57 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Amy Klobuchar: Immigration voters 22 to 75, Small counties 41 to 56, Incomes $125K and up 49 to 48. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.5M cash against $618K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Amy Klobuchar. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Lisa Demuth's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $6.2M helping Lisa Demuth and $1.3M helping Amy Klobuchar.
- Close the gap
Lisa Demuth trails by 14.2 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 197,582 voters switching sides, or 395,163 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +21.1 and D +7.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +10.2. Your best recent poll is co/efficient (R) at D +5.9; your worst is New York Times/Siena at D +17.4. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Wright, a projected net 18,570 votes; Stearns, a projected net 17,455 votes; Sherburne, a projected net 13,064 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Anoka, D +5.2, 6.3% of the vote; Scott, R +1.9, 2.7% of the vote; Carver, R +3.6, 2.1% of the vote; Rice, D +10.1, 1.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Lisa Demuth runs furthest behind in St. Louis, Chisago, Rice. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 87% of voters, 44 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.37 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 42 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 40 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Lisa Demuth: Black voters 17 to 80, Asian and other voters 26 to 72, Health care and Social Security voters 26 to 71. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$618K cash against $3.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Lisa Demuth. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Amy Klobuchar's strongest asset
Cash: $3.5M in the bank against $618K for Lisa Demuth.
The map for Klobuchar
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin | D +48.3 | 22.8% | +306,721 |
| Ramsey | D +53.0 | 8.9% | +130,855 |
| Dakota | D +20.8 | 8% | +46,180 |
| St. Louis | D +34.1 | 3.7% | +35,261 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anoka | D +5.2 | 6.3% | +9,137 |
| Scott | R +1.9 | 2.7% | -1,430 |
| Carver | R +3.6 | 2.1% | -2,078 |
| Rice | D +10.1 | 1.1% | +3,189 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carver | R +3.6 | 2.1% | -2,078 |
| Stearns | R +23.5 | 2.7% | -17,455 |
| Wright | R +25.8 | 2.6% | -18,570 |
The coalition
Klobuchar against Demuth among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters87% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202475% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties27% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
- Incomes $125K and up10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +14.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +21.1 and D +7.0
- Polling average
- D +10.2
- Partisan lean
- D +5.8
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena | 0 | 752 LV | D +17.4 |
| State Navigate | 0 | 806 LV | D +8.8 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 0 | 714 LV | D +11.4 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 3 | 650 LV | D +6.4 |
| Mason-Dixon for the Star Tribune | 8 | 800 LV | D +9.8 |
| Mason-Dixon for KARE 11/Minnesota Star Tribune | 8 | 800 LV | D +9.8 |
| Morning Consult | 8 | 1,000 RV | D +8.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 30 | 833 LV | D +5.9 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 31 | 654 LV | D +6.4 |
| TIPP Insights | 43 | 1,201 LV | D +7.8 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Klobuchar | Demuth | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $12.5M | $3.1M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $3.5M | $618K |
| Outside money for | $1.3M | $6.2M |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Minnesota, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 728,961
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +29.6
- Forecast expected
- D +30.7
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-26Judd Legum reporter, leans D
Reported that similar anti Democrat mailers from an unregistered group have appeared in the Minnesota governor race targeting Amy Klobuchar. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-01Pete Buttigieg announced in
Announced Sunday Minnesota stop; city not given, date inferred from weekday. Source