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Tennessee Senate
Marquita Bradshaw vs Bill Hagerty
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 250
Raised $29K against $8.2M for Bill Hagerty.
- Cash weight 200
$1K in the bank against $5.2M for Bill Hagerty. As of 07/17/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Marquita Bradshaw and $1.0M helping Bill Hagerty.
- National tide weight 1565
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.45 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 6.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Marquita Bradshaw.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $1K against $5.2M.
- Money weight 25100
Raised $8.2M against $29K for Marquita Bradshaw.
- Cash weight 20100
$5.2M in the bank against $1K for Marquita Bradshaw. As of 07/17/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $1.0M helping Bill Hagerty and $0 helping Marquita Bradshaw.
- National tide weight 1535
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.45 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 6.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Bill Hagerty.
- Activity weight 1025
$291K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Marquita Bradshaw trails by 19.8 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 229,694 voters switching sides, or 459,388 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +27.1 and R +12.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Shelby, a projected net 106,299 votes; Davidson, a projected net 87,522 votes; Haywood, a projected net 677 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Knox, R +11.1, 7.3% of the vote; Hamilton, R +2.5, 5.7% of the vote; Madison, R +10.0, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Marquita Bradshaw runs furthest behind in Loudon, Cumberland, Wilson. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 63% of voters, 34 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.15 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 38 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.00 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 60% of voters, 37 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Marquita Bradshaw: Immigration voters 12 to 82, Small counties 20 to 73, Midsize counties 29 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1K cash against $5.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Marquita Bradshaw. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Bill Hagerty's strongest asset
Cash: $5.2M in the bank against $1K for Marquita Bradshaw.
- Protect the lead
Bill Hagerty leads by 19.8 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 459,388 votes; a one point swing is about 11,577 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +12.5 and R +27.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Williamson, a projected net 28,450 votes; Sullivan, a projected net 27,192 votes; Sumner, a projected net 25,047 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Knox, R +11.1, 7.3% of the vote; Hamilton, R +2.5, 5.7% of the vote; Madison, R +10.0, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Bill Hagerty runs furthest behind in Shelby. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 63% of voters, 59 to 34, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.15 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 55 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.00 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 60% of voters, 56 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Bill Hagerty: Black voters 19 to 75, Independents 27 to 60, Large counties 38 to 56. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$5.2M cash against $1K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Bill Hagerty. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Marquita Bradshaw's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Bradshaw
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby | D +38.7 | 11.9% | +106,299 |
| Davidson | D +37.0 | 10.2% | +87,522 |
| Haywood | D +12.7 | 0.2% | +677 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knox | R +11.1 | 7.3% | -18,835 |
| Hamilton | R +2.5 | 5.7% | -3,383 |
| Madison | R +10.0 | 1.4% | -3,168 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loudon | R +52.9 | 1% | -12,741 |
| Cumberland | R +54.5 | 1.1% | -14,130 |
| Wilson | R +35.0 | 2.5% | -20,406 |
The coalition
Bradshaw against Hagerty among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters without a degree63% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202460% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Women54% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties30% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
- Midsize counties31% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +19.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +12.5 and R +27.1
- Polling average
- R +20.0
- Partisan lean
- R +28.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/17/2026| Bradshaw | Hagerty | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $29K | $8.2M |
| Spent | $1K | $3.9M |
| Cash on hand | $1K | $5.2M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $1.0M |
| Google ads | $0 | $291K |
The early vote
Tennessee, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,280,642
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +25.8
- Forecast expected
- R +25.2
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.