How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Tennessee Governor
Jerri Green vs Marsha Blackburn
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2513
Raised $1.8M against $12.8M for Marsha Blackburn.
- Cash weight 2015
$560K in the bank against $3.1M for Marsha Blackburn.
- National tide weight 1568
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.54 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jerri Green.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $560K against $3.1M.
- Money weight 2587
Raised $12.8M against $1.8M for Jerri Green.
- Cash weight 2085
$3.1M in the bank against $560K for Jerri Green.
- National tide weight 1532
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.54 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Marsha Blackburn.
- Activity weight 1025
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Jerri Green trails by 10.7 and wins 4% of simulations. Closing it takes about 123,784 voters switching sides, or 247,568 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +18.2 and R +3.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +8.2. Your best recent poll is Spry Strategies (R) at R +11.5; your worst is Spry Strategies (R) at R +11.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Shelby, a projected net 102,954 votes; Davidson, a projected net 95,817 votes; Hamilton, a projected net 4,637 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Knox, R +1.0, 7.4% of the vote; Hamilton, D +3.5, 5.8% of the vote; Williamson, R +10.4, 4.6% of the vote; Rutherford, R +2.4, 4.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jerri Green runs furthest behind in Loudon, Madison, Montgomery. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 84% of voters, 33 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.21 points; Voters without a degree, 63% of voters, 36 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.14 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 60% of voters, 37 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jerri Green: Immigration voters 14 to 73, Small counties 22 to 64, Incomes $125K and up 31 to 56. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$560K cash against $3.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.1 points away from Jerri Green. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Marsha Blackburn's strongest asset
Money: Raised $12.8M against $1.8M for Jerri Green.
- Protect the lead
Marsha Blackburn leads by 10.7 in the forecast and wins 96% of simulations. The cushion is about 247,568 votes; a one point swing is about 11,558 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.1 and R +18.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +8.2. Your best recent poll is Spry Strategies (R) at R +11.5; your worst is Spry Strategies (R) at R +11.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Sullivan, a projected net 20,147 votes; Bradley, a projected net 15,092 votes; Sumner, a projected net 14,008 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Knox, R +1.0, 7.4% of the vote; Hamilton, D +3.5, 5.8% of the vote; Williamson, R +10.4, 4.6% of the vote; Rutherford, R +2.4, 4.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Marsha Blackburn runs furthest behind in Putnam, Sevier, Washington. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 84% of voters, 53 to 33, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.21 points; Voters without a degree, 63% of voters, 50 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.14 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 60% of voters, 49 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Marsha Blackburn: Black voters 17 to 68, Independents 19 to 53, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 28 to 53. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.1M cash against $560K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.1 points toward Marsha Blackburn. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jerri Green's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Green
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby | D +38.7 | 11.5% | +102,954 |
| Davidson | D +40.9 | 10.1% | +95,817 |
| Hamilton | D +3.5 | 5.8% | +4,637 |
| Haywood | D +15.3 | 0.2% | +803 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knox | R +1.0 | 7.4% | -1,790 |
| Hamilton | D +3.5 | 5.8% | +4,637 |
| Williamson | R +10.4 | 4.6% | -11,134 |
| Rutherford | R +2.4 | 4.6% | -2,495 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loudon | R +40.8 | 1% | -9,890 |
| Madison | R +5.7 | 1.4% | -1,804 |
| Montgomery | R +5.8 | 2.5% | -3,377 |
The coalition
Green against Blackburn among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters84% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.2
- Voters without a degree63% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202460% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties30% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
- Incomes $125K and up11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +10.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +3.1 and R +18.2
- Polling average
- R +8.2
- Partisan lean
- R +28.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R) | 0 | 635 LV | R +11.5 |
| TargetSmart | 33 | 600 LV | R +10.0 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Green | Blackburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.8M | $12.8M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $560K | $3.1M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Tennessee, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,280,642
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +25.8
- Forecast expected
- R +25.2
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-21Stella Parton influencer, leans D
The singer, younger sister of Dolly Parton, claimed in a Facebook post that a Nashville area voting machine kept defaulting to Marsha Blackburn when she tried to vote for the Democrat, and said she would never vote for Blackburn; no official response was reported. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.