How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Louisiana Senate
Jamie Davis vs Julia Letlow
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2537
Raised $4.0M against $7.0M for Julia Letlow.
- Cash weight 2025
$479K in the bank against $1.4M for Julia Letlow. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 155
Outside groups spent $658K helping Jamie Davis and $12.3M helping Julia Letlow.
- National tide weight 1585
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.23 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 17.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jamie Davis.
- Money weight 2564
Raised $7.0M against $4.0M for Jamie Davis.
- Cash weight 2075
$1.4M in the bank against $479K for Jamie Davis. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1595
Outside groups spent $12.3M helping Julia Letlow and $658K helping Jamie Davis.
- National tide weight 1515
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.23 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 17.2 points of that tide, a headwind for Julia Letlow.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $178K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Jamie Davis trails by 6.5 and wins 16% of simulations. Closing it takes about 49,687 voters switching sides, or 99,374 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +14.4 and D +1.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +2.2. Your best recent poll is Hart Research Associates (D) at R +1.8; your worst is Hart Research Associates (D) at R +5.9. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Orleans Parish, a projected net 104,070 votes; East Baton Rouge Parish, a projected net 43,798 votes; Caddo Parish, a projected net 14,368 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Jefferson Parish, D +2.2, 8.9% of the vote; St. Landry Parish, D +0.5, 1.8% of the vote; St. Mary Parish, R +11.8, 1.0% of the vote; St. Bernard Parish, R +9.7, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jamie Davis runs furthest behind in Livingston Parish, Bossier Parish, Ouachita Parish. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 46 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 46 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 50 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jamie Davis: Immigration voters 15 to 85, White voters 34 to 66, Midsize counties 39 to 61. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$479K cash against $1.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Jamie Davis. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Julia Letlow's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $12.3M helping Julia Letlow and $658K helping Jamie Davis.
- Protect the lead
Julia Letlow leads by 6.5 in the forecast and wins 84% of simulations. The cushion is about 99,374 votes; a one point swing is about 7,609 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +1.8 and R +14.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +2.2. Your best recent poll is Hart Research Associates (D) at R +5.9; your worst is Hart Research Associates (D) at R +1.8. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: St. Tammany Parish, a projected net 37,012 votes; Livingston Parish, a projected net 29,570 votes; Lafourche Parish, a projected net 15,471 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Jefferson Parish, D +2.2, 8.9% of the vote; St. Landry Parish, D +0.5, 1.8% of the vote; St. Mary Parish, R +11.8, 1.0% of the vote; St. Bernard Parish, R +9.7, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Julia Letlow runs furthest behind in St. Landry Parish, Jefferson Parish, Rapides Parish. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 54 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 54 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 50 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Julia Letlow: Black voters 20 to 80, Independents 24 to 76, Large counties 32 to 68. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.4M cash against $479K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Julia Letlow. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jamie Davis's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Davis
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Parish | D +79.2 | 8.6% | +104,070 |
| East Baton Rouge Parish | D +28.8 | 10% | +43,798 |
| Caddo Parish | D +19.3 | 4.9% | +14,368 |
| St. John the Baptist Parish | D +45.1 | 1% | +6,587 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson Parish | D +2.2 | 8.9% | +2,959 |
| St. Landry Parish | D +0.5 | 1.8% | +145 |
| St. Mary Parish | R +11.8 | 1% | -1,853 |
| St. Bernard Parish | R +9.7 | 0.8% | -1,212 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston Parish | R +63.0 | 3.1% | -29,570 |
| Bossier Parish | R +32.6 | 2.6% | -12,750 |
| Ouachita Parish | R +14.9 | 3.3% | -7,455 |
The coalition
Davis against Letlow among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters without a degree68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Women52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- White voters70% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Midsize counties46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +6.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +1.8 and R +14.4
- Polling average
- R +2.2
- Partisan lean
- R +20.9
- Early vote effect
- R +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates (D) | 0 | 500 LV | R +1.8 |
| Hart Research Associates (D) | 26 | 500 LV | R +5.9 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Davis | Letlow | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $4.0M | $7.0M |
| Spent | $1.5M | $4.8M |
| Cash on hand | $479K | $1.4M |
| Outside money for | $658K | $12.3M |
| Google ads | $0 | $179K |
The early vote
Louisiana, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 527,104
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +2.0
- Forecast expected
- R +0.2
- Against expectation
- 1.8 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-20Julia Letlow event in Lafayette
Campaigned in Lafayette as early voting opened, on the same day Sen. John Kennedy campaigned separately in the city. Source