2026 forecast
Tennessee Senate forecast
Marquita Bradshaw vs Bill Hagerty. The model has Hagerty ahead by 18.8 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
95 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +12.0 and R +25.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +22.2 | |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,157 RV | 44d | R +18.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bradshaw | Hagerty |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 33.2 | 60.1 |
| Women | 53% | 40.9 | 52.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 39.9 | 53.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 38.6 | 54.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 35.4 | 57.9 |
| 65+ | 30% | 37.1 | 56.3 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 28.1 | 65.1 |
| Black | 15% | 78.1 | 15.8 |
| Latino | 3% | 50.8 | 42.5 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 60.0 | 32.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 23.4 | 70.0 |
| White women | 42% | 32.3 | 60.9 |
| Black men | 7% | 74.8 | 18.9 |
| Black women | 8% | 81.0 | 12.9 |
| Latino men | 1% | 49.0 | 44.1 |
| Latino women | 1% | 52.5 | 41.0 |
| All other races | 4% | 60.0 | 32.1 |