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25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 forecast

North Carolina Senate forecast

Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley, an open seat. The model has Cooper ahead by 11.0 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +11.0Polls D +9.8Updated October 9, 2026

County simulation

100 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +56.4: 1 simulationsD +53.1: 0 simulationsD +49.8: 0 simulationsD +46.5: 0 simulationsD +43.1: 0 simulationsD +39.9: 0 simulationsD +36.6: 0 simulationsD +33.3: 6 simulationsD +30.0: 13 simulationsD +26.7: 24 simulationsD +23.4: 108 simulationsD +20.1: 437 simulationsD +16.8: 1268 simulationsD +13.5: 2379 simulationsD +10.2: 2797 simulationsD +6.8: 1929 simulationsD +3.6: 775 simulationsD +0.3: 215 simulationsR +3.0: 32 simulationsR +6.3: 10 simulationsR +9.7: 3 simulationsR +12.9: 0 simulationsR +16.2: 1 simulationsR +19.5: 0 simulationsR +22.8: 1 simulationsR +26.1: 0 simulationsR +29.4: 0 simulationsR +32.7: 0 simulationsR +36.0: 0 simulationsR +39.3: 0 simulationsR +42.6: 0 simulationsR +45.9: 0 simulationsR +49.2: 0 simulationsR +52.5: 0 simulationsR +55.8: 0 simulationsR +59.1: 0 simulationsR +62.4: 0 simulationsR +65.8: 0 simulationsR +69.0: 0 simulationsR +72.3: 1 simulationsD +58.0R +74.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.1 and D +5.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +9.8
East Carolina University810 LV6dD +7.5
Big Data Poll642 LV10dD +11.9
Quantus Insights686 LV17dD +6.8
Rasmussen Reports1,047 LV17dD +6.4
AARP (Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research)1,115 LV19dD +10.6
Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North Carolina857 LV19dD +8.1
YouGov3,745 LV21dD +11.1
InsiderAdvantage (R)1,200 LV22dD +6.7
High Point University706 LV23dD +8.1
Catawba College/YouGov885 LV24dD +11.2
Harper Polling (R)608 LV24dD +14.8
The Trafalgar Group (R)1,084 LV29dD +7.4
East Carolina University675 LV36dD +8.0
Elon University/YouGov565 LV39dD +10.2
High Point University/YouGov660 LV58dD +4.1
Harper Polling (R)600 LV60dD +12.8
Change Research (D)915 LV64dD +6.0
Change Research (D)967 RV69dD +8.4
Elon University/YouGov466 LV70dD +10.1
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)1,005 RV74dD +7.3
Public Policy Polling (D)759 LV90dD +2.8
New York Times/Siena University601 LV104dD +6.7
Catawba College/YouGov905 LV121dD +13.2
Harper Polling (R)600 LV151dD +10.8
Change Research (D)957 LV154dD +6.1

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareCooperWhatley
GenderMen47%49.947.5
Women54%58.039.5
Age18 to 2914%57.040.4
30 to 4422%53.943.5
45 to 6434%53.244.2
65+30%54.343.2
RaceWhite70%43.154.3
Black20%85.612.1
Latino5%63.334.2
Asian and other5%73.024.1
Race and genderWhite men32%37.360.1
White women38%48.049.4
Black men10%82.215.4
Black women11%88.69.1
Latino men2%62.734.7
Latino women2%63.933.7
All other races5%73.024.1