How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Maine Senate
Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2549
Raised $20.4M against $21.4M for Susan Collins.
- Air cover weight 1538
Outside groups spent $39.2M helping Troy Jackson and $62.9M helping Susan Collins.
- Early vote weight 1577
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 23% for the other party. That is 2.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1574
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.76 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Troy Jackson.
- Activity weight 10100
16 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 3 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $3.3M in Google political ads this cycle. 2 stories on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2551
Raised $21.4M against $20.4M for Troy Jackson.
- Air cover weight 1562
Outside groups spent $62.9M helping Susan Collins and $39.2M helping Troy Jackson.
- Early vote weight 1523
Registered Republicans cast 23% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 2.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1526
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.76 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Susan Collins.
- Activity weight 10100
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 5 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $1.9M in Google political ads this cycle. 3 stories on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −6 Contested items in the watchdog file. 3 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Troy Jackson leads by 3.0 in the forecast and wins 73% of simulations. The cushion is about 22,107 votes; a one point swing is about 3,709 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.9 and D +9.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +3.8. Your best recent poll is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at D +6.7; your worst is New York Times/Siena University at R +3.7. 19 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Cumberland, a projected net 54,124 votes; York, a projected net 8,182 votes; Hancock, a projected net 3,379 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: York, D +7.0, 15.7% of the vote; Kennebec, R +5.0, 8.9% of the vote; Androscoggin, R +6.4, 7.1% of the vote; Hancock, D +10.3, 4.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Troy Jackson runs furthest behind in Lincoln, Knox, Waldo. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 95% of voters, 50 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.75 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 77% of voters, 52 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.85 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 52 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Troy Jackson: Immigration voters 18 to 80, Men 46 to 52, New and irregular voters 46 to 52. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 23% for the other party. That is 2.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points away from Troy Jackson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Susan Collins's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Susan Collins trails by 3.0 and wins 27% of simulations. Closing it takes about 11,054 voters switching sides, or 22,107 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.5 and R +3.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +3.8. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena University at R +3.7; your worst is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at D +6.7. 19 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Aroostook, a projected net 10,379 votes; Penobscot, a projected net 9,919 votes; Somerset, a projected net 7,710 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: York, D +7.0, 15.7% of the vote; Kennebec, R +5.0, 8.9% of the vote; Androscoggin, R +6.4, 7.1% of the vote; Hancock, D +10.3, 4.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Susan Collins runs furthest behind in Androscoggin, Washington, Hancock. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 95% of voters, 48 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.75 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 77% of voters, 46 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.85 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 46 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Susan Collins: Health care and Social Security voters 32 to 66, Large counties 34 to 64, Corruption voters 37 to 61. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 23% of the 290,377 ballots in Maine so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 2.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.5 points toward Susan Collins. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Troy Jackson's strongest asset
Activity: 16 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
The map for Jackson
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland | D +30.5 | 23.9% | +54,124 |
| York | D +7.0 | 15.7% | +8,182 |
| Hancock | D +10.3 | 4.4% | +3,379 |
| Sagadahoc | D +12.3 | 3% | +2,717 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| York | D +7.0 | 15.7% | +8,182 |
| Kennebec | R +5.0 | 8.9% | -3,310 |
| Androscoggin | R +6.4 | 7.1% | -3,368 |
| Hancock | D +10.3 | 4.4% | +3,379 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | D +1.1 | 2.9% | +229 |
| Knox | D +10.2 | 3.2% | +2,414 |
| Waldo | R +2.8 | 3% | -623 |
The coalition
Jackson against Collins among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters95% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.8
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202477% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.9
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Men43% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.2
- New and irregular voters5% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.2
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. A logger and union man who owes nothing to Trump or billionaires, running against Collins as a reliable Trump vote; he says Trump gets her vote "100% of the time" when he needs it. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. His Augusta record on electric rates and taxes, the mortgage residency question, late disclosure, and $138K in personal union consulting pay; Collins also notes his past opposition to abortion. Source
- Strongest coalition. Independents, 52 to 45 in Marist October 1 to 4, and voters who say Trump's policies hurt Maine's economy or oppose tariffs, per CBS and YouGov. Source
- Soft spot in the base. Four in ten Democrats wish someone else were the nominee, and Hannah Pingree runs ahead of him for governor. Source
- Recent event. His "Oh, shut up" line at the final October 15 debate in Bangor; the Maine GOP called it unacceptable. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Labor unions, Party and leadership
- Main message. Seniority and results: the Appropriations gavel, federal money for Maine, and a record of independence, citing her effort against Hegseth. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. That she gives Trump the votes he needs, "100% of the time" in Jackson's words, plus the Navatek pay to play allegation she denies. Source
- Strongest coalition. Repeat Collins voters and state focused voters; she wins about one in five Trump disapprovers and holds enough Democrats to tie, per CBS News and YouGov, September 23 to October 1. Source
- Recent event. At the final October 15 Bangor debate, Jackson told her "shut up" after she tied a protester to him; the Maine GOP called it unacceptable and she is using it in ads per a RedState headline not read. Source
- Polls. Marist, October 1 to 4: Jackson 51, Collins 47 among registered voters; independents Jackson 52 to 45; 57 percent expect Collins to win. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor, Ideological groups
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.5 and R +3.9
- Polling average
- D +3.8
- Partisan lean
- D +8.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.5
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,514 LV | R +0.3 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 0 | 1,077 LV | D +0.7 |
| Marist College | 0 | 560 LV | R +0.2 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 413 LV | D +6.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 0 | 783 LV | D +2.9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1 | 800 LV | D +2.1 |
| Suffolk University | 4 | 500 LV | D +0.2 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 7 | 804 LV | D +1.5 |
| The Washington Post-Schar School | 10 | 800 LV | D +2.8 |
| Marist College | 11 | 1,505 RV | D +1.5 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 14 | 1,144 LV | R +0.9 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 14 | 1,091 LV | D +1.5 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Jackson | Collins | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $20.4M | $21.4M |
| Spent | $16.5M | $10.9M |
| Cash on hand | n/a | $11.0M |
| Outside money for | $39.2M | $62.9M |
| Google ads | $3.3M | $1.9M |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Troy Jackson$28.9M
- WinSenate against Susan Collins$24.3M
- Pine Tree Results PAC against Troy Jackson$23.5M
- The Maine Standard against Troy Jackson$6.8M
- Stronger Maine against Troy Jackson$3.1M
- Government That Works PAC for Troy Jackson$2.2M
- Lead Maine Committee against Troy Jackson$2.1M
- America PAC against Troy Jackson$2.0M
- Republican side committed or spent since January, about Source$114.0M
- Democratic side since January, about Source$81.0M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$27.2M
- All advertisers, spent or reserved, more than, Republicans ahead by about 40,000,000 Source$260.0M
- Negative ads in the general election, spent or committed, more than Source$54.0M
- Pine Tree Results PAC, IE opposing Jackson, filed Oct 20 Source$1.9M
The early vote
Maine, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 290,377
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +24.2
- Forecast expected
- D +26.2
- Against expectation
- 2.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Predicted Susan Collins will win. Source
- 2026-10-20David Axelrod commentator, leans D
Said Maine is in play and will be close but Collins is a survivor. Source
- 2026-10-17Nate Silver analyst
Called Maine the Senate tipping point state, with Troy Jackson narrowly ahead of Susan Collins in his polling error test. Source
- 2026-10-15Steve Kornacki analyst
At a Princeton talk he called Susan Collins's seat the most obvious Democratic Senate opportunity. Source
- 2026-10-06Jen Psaki host, leans D
Anchored The Briefing live from Portland, Maine, focused on Collins vs Troy Jackson. Source
- 2026-08-17Harry Enten analyst
In a YouTube forecast video listed Maine as a Democratic lead of 3 points on the path to a Democratic sweep. Source
- 2026-07-18Laura Ingraham host, leans R
Mocked the Maine Democratic Senate debate and its candidates' policies and discussed the effect on Susan Collins. Source
- 2026-07-10Mark Halperin reporter
Ran a Morning Meeting segment on Maine's evolving Democratic Senate field and the deadline for Graham Platner to exit the race. Source
- 2026-07-08David Pakman podcaster, leans D
Contrasted Republican reaction to the Platner allegations with GOP silence on allegations against Trump. Source
- 2026-07-01Harry Enten analyst
Called the Collins vs Platner race a contest with no clear leader in his Senate math segment. Source
- 2026-06-10Perry Bacon podcaster, leans D
Devoted an episode to Graham Platner's campaign against Susan Collins the morning after the Maine primary. Source
- 2026-06-05Laura Ingraham host, leans R
Ran a segment on a report about Democratic candidate Graham Platner's alleged past behavior and relationships. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announced in Portland
2 p.m. town hall at State Theatre. Source
- 2026-10-22Troy Jackson town hall in Portland
Scheduled Thursday town hall with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, reported in advance by the AP on Oct. 21. Source
- 2026-10-21Joe Manchin event in
Former Democratic senator campaigned for Republican Collins; city not stated. Source
- 2026-10-21Susan Collins event in Lewiston
Collins had breakfast at Simones' Hot Dog Stand with former Sen. Joe Manchin and spoke to reporters before a few dozen supporters. Source
- 2026-10-21Susan Collins event in Norway
Collins and former Sen. Joe Manchin visited a New Balance shoe facility. Source
- 2026-10-17Elizabeth Warren rally in Portland
Warren rallied about 1,000 people at Deering Oaks Park on the No Kings day of action with Jackson and Pingree. Source
- 2026-10-17Troy Jackson rally in Portland
Jackson and Sen. Elizabeth Warren held a breakfast meet up at Becky's Diner, a canvass launch, a town hall and a rally at Deering Oaks Park with Hannah Pingree. Source
- 2026-10-16Troy Jackson rally in Biddeford
Jackson spoke at a Maine AFL-CIO Working Class Rally with the Dropkick Murphys, Maine AFL-CIO President Cynthia Phinney and nurses union President Kelli Brennan. Source
- 2026-10-15Troy Jackson debate in Bangor
Fourth and final debate with Sen. Susan Collins at the Gracie Theater, hosted by Maine Public, NEWS CENTER Maine and the Portland Press Herald. Source
- 2026-10-15Susan Collins debate in Bangor
Fourth and final debate with Democrat Troy Jackson at the Gracie Theater in Bangor. Source
- 2026-10-11Troy Jackson rally in Lewiston
Jackson and Sen. Bernie Sanders held a Sunday get out the vote rally in Lewiston. Source
- 2026-10-11Troy Jackson rally in Biddeford
Jackson and Sen. Bernie Sanders held a Sunday get out the vote rally in Biddeford. Source
- Marist poll shows Jackson edging Collins in Maine and a tied governor's race, drawing pushback from Nate Silver2026-10-27
- Trump lifts tariffs on some Canadian goods after Susan Collins asks for relief for Maine growers2026-10-23
- Susan Collins asks a Republican super PAC to pull a radio ad calling Troy Jackson a creep2026-10-22